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N " A@>: ?>30H5=8O 4>;30 (0=3;. number of periods) " 8=B5@20; 2@5<5=8, ?> 8AB5G5=88 :>B>@>3> AC<<C 4>;30 8 ?@>F5=BK =C6=> 25@=CBL. !@>: 87<5@O5BAO G8A;>< @0AG5B=KE ?5@8>4>2 " >1KG=> @02=KE ?> 4;8=5 ?>4K=B5@20;>2 2@5<5=8, 2 :>=F5 :>B>@KE @53C;O@=> =0G8A;ONBAO ?@>F5=BK. @>F5=B=0O AB02:0 R = (FV " PV) / PV 87<5@O5B C@>25=L 4>E>4=>AB8 >B=5A5=85< 01A>;NB=>3> MDD5:B0 (?>;CG5==>3> 4>E>40 2 2845 AC<<K ?@>F5=B=KE 45=53, =0G8A;5==KE 70 25AL A@>:) : 8AE>4=>9 AC<<5 4>;3>2>3> >1O70B5;LAB20 PV. =B5@5A=>, GB> 4> A>F80;8AB8G5A:>9 @52>;NF88 2 >AA88 A;>2> "8=B5@5A" C?>B@51;O;>AL :0: D8=0=A>2K9 B5@<8= 4;O >1>7=0G5=8O AC<<K ?@>F5=B=>3> 4>E>40. A;8 A>>B=5AB8 AC<<C ?@>F5=B>2 (FV " PV) =5 A PV, 0 A 1C4CI59 AB>8<>ABLN FV, =0@0I5==>9 ?> <5@5 ?@8A>548=5=8O ?@>F5=B>2, B> ?>;CG8BAO 4@C30O <5@0 MDD5:B82=>AB8 " B5<? A=865=8O D = (FV " PV) / FV, =07K205<K9 2 D8=0=A0E CG5B=>9 AB02:>9 (0=3;. discount rate), 8;8 =>@<>9 10=:>2A:>3> 48A:>=B8@>20=8O. 8A:>=B>< 2 40==>< A;CG05 =07K205BAO A:84:0 2 F5=5 ?@8 ?@>4065 4>;3>2>3> >1O70B5;LAB20 (F5==>9 1C<038) =865 =><8=0;0. 040=85 K@078B5 ?@>F5=B=CN AB02:C R G5@57 CG5B=CN AB02:C D, 8A?>;L7CO A>>B=>H5=85  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image135.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image136.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image137.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET R = @8<5@. K 70=O;8 A53>4=O 4 @C1., 402 >1O70B5;LAB2> 25@=CBL : C:070==>9 40B5 5 @C1. F5=8< 4>E>4=>ABL MB>9 A45;:8 4;O :@548B>@0 ?>:070B5;O<8 =>@<K ?@>F5=B0 R 8 CG5B=>9 AB02:8 D, ?@8=O2 25AL ?5@8>4 <564C 42C<O <><5=B0<8 2@5<5=8 70 ?>;=K9 A@>: 4>3>2>@0, ?@8=O2 53> 70 548=8FC 2@5<5=8 N=1. PV = 4 @C1., FV = 5 @C1., FV " PV = 5 " 4 = 1 @C1., R = 1/4 = 25%, D = 1/5 = 20%. @8<5@. 0=: ?@82;5: 45=56=K5 A@54AB20 :;85=B0 2 AC<<5 376 000 @C1., 2 >1<5= =0 25:A5;L (4>;3>2>5 >1O70B5;LAB2>) ?> ?@54JO2;5=88 =><8=0;>< 509 500 @C1., :>B>@K9 G5@57 6 4=59 1K; ?>30H5=. @>F5=B=K9 4>E>4 :;85=B0 70 6 4=59 A>AB02;O5B 509 500 " 376 000 = 133 500 @C1. @>F5=B=0O AB02:0 70 6 4=59 133 500 / 376 000 = 35,51%. 0 1 45=L 35,51% / 6 = 5,9%. #G5B=0O AB02:0 70 6 4=59 133 500 / 509 500 = 26,20%. 0 1 45=L 26,20% / 6 = 4,4%. @>ABK5 ?@>F5=BK =0G8A;ONBAO ?> AB02:5 R =0 >4=C 8 BC 65 ?>AB>O==CN 107C - 8AE>4=CN AC<<C 4>;30 PV, GB> 70 AG5B <=>3>:@0B=>3> ?@8102;5=8O ?>AB>O==>9 25;8G8=K ?@>F5=B=>3> 4>E>40 70 >48= ?5@8>4  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image138.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET ?@82>48B : @>ABC  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image139.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 70 ?>;=K9 A@>: N ?5@8>4>2 ?> 70:>=C 0@8D<5B8G5A:>9 ?@>3@5AA88.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image140.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  =>68B5;L =0@0I5=8O ?> ?@028;C ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 @025=  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image141.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET . = ?>:07K205B 1C4CICN AB>8<>ABL >4=>9 45=56=>9 548=8FK, 2;>65==>9 A@>:>< =0 N ?5@8>4>2 ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 2 :>=F5 :064>3> 87 =8E ?@>F5=B=>3> 4>E>40 ?> AB02:5 R 157 :0?8B0;870F88 =0G8A;5==KE @0=55 ?@>F5=B>2. "01;8F0 1 0@0I5=85 8 87JOB85 4>E>40 ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 >4!C<<0 2:;040 2 =0G0;5 3>40 (@C1.)C4CI0O AB>8<>ABL (AC<<0 =0 AG5B5 2 :>=F5 3>40) ?@8 ?> AB02:5 R = 15% 3>4>2KE (@C1.)@>F5=B=K9 4>E>4 (A=OB A> AG5B0 2 :>=F5 3>40) (@C1.)AB0B>: =0 AG5B5 (@C1.)110 000 11 500 = (1+0,15) INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image142.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  1 500 10 000 210 000 11 500 = (1+0,15) INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image142.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 1 500 10 000 310 000 11 500 = (1+0,15) INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image142.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 1 500 10 000 ><8=0;L=K5 ?@>F5=B=K5 AB02:8 B@048F8>==> >1JO2;ONBAO =0 ?5@8>4, @02=K9 >4=><C :0;5=40@=><C 3>4C N = 1, 0 A@>: 1>;55 :>@>B:>9 D8=0=A>2>9 >?5@0F88 87<5@O5BAO >1K:=>25==>9 4@>1LN " 4>;59 3>40  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image143.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET , 0 < N < 1, :>B>@CN ?>;CG0NB :0: >B=>H5=85 A@>:0 >?5@0F88 t : 4;8=5 F5;>3> 3>40. A;8 CG8BK205BAO B>G=>5 G8A;> 4=59 2 3>4C (T=365 8;8 366), B> 3>2>@OB > =0G8A;5=88 B>G=KE ?@>F5=B>2. @8 @0AG5B5 >1K:=>25==KE ?@>F5=B>2 3>4 >:@C3;O5BAO 4> 360 = 12 <5AOF52 ?> 30 4=59. !@>: >?5@0F88 t <>6=> @0AA<0B@820BL B>G=> 8;8 ?@81;878B5;L=>. @8<5@. 5=56=K5 A@54AB20 2 AC<<5 20 BKA.@C1. ?@8=OBK 0=:>< 2 A@>G=K9 2:;04 =0 3 <5AOF0. 0945< 1C4CICN AB>8<>ABL 2:;040 ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 ?@>F5=B>2 ?> AB02:5 R = 29% 3>4>2KE. >1K:=>25==K5 ?@>F5=BK A ?@81;865==K< G8A;>< 4=59  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image144.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET BKA. @C1. >1K:=>25==K5 ?@>F5=BK A B>G=K< G8A;>< 4=59  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image145.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET BKA. @C1. B>G=K5 ?@>F5=BK A B>G=K< G8A;>< 4=59  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image146.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET BKA. @C1. ;O B>G=>3> @0AG5B0 A@>:0 D8=0=A>2>9 >?5@0F88 =5>1E>48<> 7=0BL ?>@O4:>2K5 =><5@0 2A5E 4=59 2 3>4C. ">340 A@>: t =0E>48BAO :0: @07=>ABL =><5@>2 4=59 70:;NG5=8O 8 >:>=G0=8O 4>3>2>@0 (2 @0AG5B ?@>F5=B>2 ?> 2:;040< 4>102;O5BAO 5I5 >48= 45=L, B> 5ABL ?>;=>ABLN 2:;NG0NBAO 2A5 4=8 A@>:0). 0?@8<5@, 5A;8 4>;3 >1@07>20;AO A53>4=O, 0 ?>30H0BLAO 1C45B 702B@0, B> A;54CNI85 4@C3 70 4@C3>< 40BK >B;8G0NBAO =0 1, 0 A@>: 4>;3>2>3> >1O70B5;LAB20, 8A?>;L7C5<K9 ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 ?@>F5=B>2, ?@8 2:;NG5=88 2 =53> 40B =0G0;0 8 >:>=G0=8O 4>3>2>@0 A>AB02;O5B 2 4=O. @8 4>:><?LNB5@=>9 B5E=>;>388 >@30=870F88 @0AG5B>2 4;O CA:>@5=8O 2KG8A;5=89 8A?>;L7CNB A?@02>G=CN B01;8FC, ?>4>1=CN B01;. 2. "01;8F0 2 >@O4:>2K5 =><5@0 4=59 2 =528A>:>A=>< 3>4C 5AOF G8A;>12345678910111211326091121152182213244274305335223361921221531832142452753063363334629312315418421524627630733744356394124155185216247277308338553664951251561862172482783093396637659612615718721824927931034077386697127158188219250280311341883967981281591892202512813123429940689912916019022125228231334310104169100130161191222253283314344111142701011311621922232542843153451212437110213216319322425528531634613134472103133164194225256286317347141445731041341651952262572873183481515467410513516619622725828831934916164775106136167197228259289320350171748761071371681982292602903213511818497710813816919923026129132235219195078109139170200231262292323353202051791101401712012322632933243542121528011114117220223326429432535522225381112142173203234265295326356232354821131431742042352662963273572424558311414417520523626729732835825255684115145176206237268298329359262657851161461772072382692993303602727588611714717820823927030033136128285987118148179209240271301332362292988119149180210241272302333363303089120150181211242273303334364313190151212243304365@8<5@. K 70=O;8 21 D52@0;O 40 BKA.@C1., >1O702H8AL 25@=CBL 23 023CAB0 AC<<C 4>;30 A B>G=K<8 ?@>ABK<8 ?@>F5=B0<8 ?> AB02:5 50% 3>4>2KE. > B01;. 2 >?@545;O5< =><5@0 4=59. 21 D52@0;O " MB> 52 45=L 3>40, 0 23 023CAB0 " 235 ?> AG5BC 45=L, 5A;8 3>4 =528A>:>A=K9. ">340 t = (235 " 52) + 1 = 183 + 1 = 184 4=O. 23 023CAB0 A;54C5B 25@=CBL :@548B>@C AC<<C  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image147.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET BKA. @C1. @8<5@. 27 A5=BO1@O 2000 3>40 <>;>40O A5<LO @07<5AB8;0 2@5<5==> A2>1>4=K5 45=56=K5 A@54AB20 2 AC<<5 40 BKA. @C1. 2> 2:;04 A@>:>< 120 4=59 ?> AB02:5 9% 3>4>2KE (A<. B01;. 3), ?@54?>GBO MB>B 20@80=B 42C< 8=48284C0;L=K< 2:;040< ?> 20 BKA. @C1. :064K9. >340 70:0=G8205BAO A@>: 2:;040? 0B0 27 A5=BO1@O 2=CB@8 3>40 8<55B ?>@O4:>2K9 =><5@ 270. > :>=F0 3>40 ?@>945B (365 " 270) + 1 = 96 4=59.  2001 3. 2:;04 ?@>;568B 2 0=:5 120 " 96 = 24 4=O. 24 O=20@O <>6=> A=OBL AC<<C A@>G=>3> 2:;040 A ?@>F5=B0<8. > <><5=B0 O2:8 2:;04G8:0 70 45=L30<8 A@54AB20 ?5@52>4OBAO =0 AG5B 4> 2>AB@51>20=8O. =>68B5;L =0@0I5=8O ?> AB02:5 8% =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image148.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  =>68B5;L =0@0I5=8O ?> AB02:5 9% =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image149.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  K83@KH >B 8=25AB8@>20=8O 40 BKA. @C1. ?> 1>;55 2KA>:>9 AB02:5 =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image150.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET = 131 @C1. 51 :>?. #25;8G5=85 ?@>F5=B=>9 AB02:8 ?@8 C4;8=5=88 A@>:0 45?>78B0 A2O70=> A B5<, GB>, 4>25@OO 0=:C A2>8 A15@565=8O =0 4;8B5;L=>5 2@5<O, :;85=BK >6840NB ?>;CG8BL :><?5=A0F8N 70 ?>2KH5=85 @8A:0 =52>72@0B0 4>;30 70 AG5B ?>2KH5=8O 4>E>4=>AB8 A45;:8. @0D8G5A:>5 ?@54AB02;5=85 7028A8<>AB8 4>E>4=>AB8 2;>65=89 >B 8E A@>:0 ?@8=OBL =07K20BL ":@82>9 4>E>4=>AB8"3. $>@<0 :@82KE 4>E>4=>AB8, ?>AB@>5==KE =0 @8A.1 ?> 40==K< B01;. 3 > AB02:0E 2:;04>2 2 AC<<5 A2KH5 30 BKA. @C1. A =0G8A;5=85< ?@>F5=B>2 2 :>=F5 A@>:0 C:07K205B =0 B>, GB> 2 40==>< A;CG05, ?@82;5:0O A@54AB20 =0 1>;55 4;8B5;L=>5 2@5<O, 0=: <5=LH5 ?;0B8B 70 @8A:, A2O70==K9 A> A@>:><, G5< ?> 1>;55 :>@>B:8< 45?>78B0<. "01;8F0 3 !B02:8 ?> 2:;040< D878G5A:8E ;8F 2 @C1;OE 2 0=:5 "!0=:B-5B5@1C@3", % 3>4>2KE !@>: >@O4>: =0G8A;5=8O ?@>F5=B>220 <0@B0 2000 3>4025 A5=BO1@O 2000 3>40B 15 4> 30 BKA. @C1.!2KH5 30 BKA. @C1.B 15 4> 30 BKA. @C1.!2KH5 30 BKA. @C1.31 45=L2 :>=F5 A@>:010,011,04,55,060 4=592 :>=F5 A@>:018,020,05,56,091 45=L565<5AOG=>20,521,57,47,991 45=L2 :>=F5 A@>:021,022,07,58,0120 4=59565<5AOG=>22,023,07,98,9120 4=592 :>=F5 A@>:023,024,08,09,0 INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image151.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 1. @820O 4>E>4=>AB8. @8<5@. 20= !?8@84>=>28G A45;0; 3 023CAB0 1999 3. 45?>78B=K9 2:;04 2 AC<<5 50 BKA. @C1. =0 A@>: 365 4=59 ?> AB02:5 36% 3>4>2KE, 0 0A8;89 !5<5=>28G, >6840O @>AB0 ?@>F5=B=KE AB02>: ?> 2:;040< D878G5A:8E ;8F 2 :><<5@G5A:8E 10=:0E, @07<5AB8; B0:CN 65 AC<<C =0 A@>: 120 4=59, 8 70B5< 42064K >D>@<;O; G5@57 120 4=59 =>2K9 2:;04, @58=25AB8@CO ?>;=>ABLN 8AE>4=CN 45=56=CN AC<<C 2<5AB5 A =0G8A;5==K<8 70 4 <5AOF0 ?@>F5=B0<8. A?>;L7CO B01;. 2, >?@545;8B5 40BC >:>=G0=8O A@>:0 ?>A;54=53> (B@5BL53>) 2:;040 0A8;8O !5<5=>28G0 =0 120 4=59? 20= !?8@84>=>28G 3 023CAB0 2000 3. <>65B ?>;CG8BL  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image152.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 50 BKA. @C1., B0: :0: A=865=85 0=:>< ?@>F5=B=KE AB02>: =5 @0A?@>AB@0=O5BAO =0 @0=55 70:;NG5==K5 A@>G=K5 4>3>2>@0. 5H5=85 0A8;8O !5<f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http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image153.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  040=85 F5=8B5 @57C;LB0B @58=25AB8@>20=8O 2 CA;>28OE 40==>3> ?@8<5@0 ?@8 A>E@0=5=88 ?@>F5=B=>9 AB02:8 ?> 2:;040< A@>:>< =0 120 4=59 =0 ?>AB>O==>< C@>2=5 R = 120% 3>4>2KE.  58=25AB8@>20=85 ?@>F5=B=>3> 4>E>40 ?> ?>AB>O==>9 AB02:5 R O2;O5BAO ABC?5=G0BK< ?@81;865=85< : ?>:070B5;L=><C @>ABC ?> ?@028;C A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image154.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET , 345 1C:2>9 M >1>7=0G5=> G8A;> <><5=B>2 @58=25AB8@>20=8O. @8 70:;NG5=88 <564C 4>;6=8:>< 8 :@548B>@>< D8=0=A>2>3> 4>3>2>@0 =0 A@>:, ?@52KH0NI89 >48= @0AG5B=K9 ?5@8>4 (N > 1) 2K1>@ 107K 4;O 40;L=59H53> =0G8A;5=8O ?@>F5=B>2 8<55B ?@8=F8?80;L=>5 7=0G5=85. @8<5=5=85 ?>AB>O==>9 AB02:8 =0G8A;5=8O : ?>AB>O==>9 1075 405B @>AB ?> ?@028;C ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 " 0@8D<5B8G5A:CN ?@>3@5AA8N A ?>AB>O==>9 @07=>ABLN, @02=>9 ?@>F5=B=><C 4>E>4C 70 ?5@8>4.  :@0B:>A@>G=KE >?5@0F8OE =0 A@>: 4> 3>40 (N < 1) G0I5 8A?>;L7C5BAO ?@028;> ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2. !;>6=K5 ?@>F5=BK E0@0:B5@87CNBAO B5<, GB> 1070 =0G8A;5=8O @0AB5B 2 @57C;LB0B5 @53C;O@=>3> ?@8A>548=5=8O : =59 ?@>F5=B=KE 45=53, ?@8G8B0NI8EAO :@548B>@C 70 ?@54K4CI85 @0AG5B=K5 ?5@8>4K. >;CG05BAO 35><5B@8G5A:0O ?@>3@5AA8O A ?>AB>O==K< 7=0<5=0B5;5<, @02=K< <=>68B5;N =0@0I5=8O (1 + R) 70 >48= ?5@8>4 ?> AB02:5 ?@>F5=B>2 R.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image155.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  "01;8F0 5 0@0I5=85 8 ?@8A>548=5=85 4>E>40 ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 >4!C<<0 2:;040 2 =0G0;5 3>40 (@C1.)C4CI0O AB>8<>ABL (AC<<0 2 :>=F5 3>40) ?@8 ?> AB02:5 R = 15% 3>4>2KE (@C1.)@>F5=B=K9 4>E>4 (?@8A>548=5= : AC<<5 2:;040 2 :>=F5 3>40) (@C1.)AB0B>: =0 AG5B5 (@C1.)110 000 11 500 =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image156.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 1 500 11 500 211 500 13 225 =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image157.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 1 725 13 225.313 225 15 209 =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image158.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 1 984 15 209 =>68B5;L =0@0I5=8O A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 70 ?>;=K9 A@>: N ?5@8>4>2 ?> ?@>F5=B=>9 AB02:5 R 70 :064K9  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image159.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET O2;O5BAO >A=>2=K< D8=0=A>2K< :>MDD8F85=B>< 8 ?>:07K205B 1C4CICN AB>8<>ABL 1 45=56=>9 548=8FK, 2;>65==>9 =0 N ?5@8>4>2 ?>4 A;>6=K5 ?@>F5=BK, =0G8A;O5<K5 2 ?> AB02:5 R. ;O >1>7=0G5=8O 40==>3> D8=0=A>2>3> :>MDD8F85=B0 8A?>;L7C5BAO AB0=40@B=0O 011@5280BC@0 FVIF (>B 0=3;. Future Value Interest Factor " ?@>F5=B=K9 <=>68B5;L 1C4CI59 AB>8<>AB8). C4CI0O AB>8<>ABL >?@545;O5BAO C<=>65=85< @07<5@0 ?5@2>=0G0;L=> 8=25AB8@>20==>9 AC<<K =0 MB>B :>MDD8F85=B  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image160.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET .  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image161.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 2. >AB ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 ?@>ABKE 8 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 ?> >48=0:>2>9 AB02:5 R. 5><5B@8G5A:89 @>AB ?> ?@028;C A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 ?@8 N > 1 >13>=O5B 0@8D<5B8G5A:CN ?@>3@5AA8N ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2. "0:, B@864K 70@01>B02 =0 2;>65==K5 10 BKA. @C1. ?@>F5=BK ?> 1,5 BKA. @C1. 2 3>4, 2:;04G8: 8<55B 2 :>=F5 A@>:0  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image162.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET = 14,5 BKA. @C1., B>340 :0: 0 =0@0I5=85 A;>6=K<8 ?@>F5=B0<8 ?@8=>A8B 5<C 1C4CICN AB>8<>ABL 15,209 BKA. @C1. @8 C4;8=5=88 A@>:0 2:;040 MB0 B5=45=F8O CA8;8205BAO (A<. @8A. 2). 040=85 > :0:>9 AB02:5 ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 <>6=> 70 4 3>40 =0@0AB8BL AC<<C, @02=CN 1C4CI59 AB>8<>AB8 8AE>4=>9 AC<<K A@54AB2 70 B>B 65 A@>: ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 4>E>40 ?> AB02:5 15% A;>6=KE 3>4>2KE? ;O B>3>, GB>1K =09B8 >B25B =5>1E>48<> 2K@078BL 8A:><CN AB02:C ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 R 87 CA;>28O @025=AB20 <=>68B5;59 =0@0I5=8O ?> ?@>ABK< 8 A;>6=K< ?@>F5=B0<: A;>6=K5 ?@>F5=BK  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image163.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET ?@>ABK5 ?@>F5=BK  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image164.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  @8<5@. 0 420 @0AG5B=KE ?5@8>40 ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 2:;04 2K@>A A PV = 75 @C1. 4> FV2 = 112,5 @C1. 7 D>@<C;K A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image165.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 2K@078< AB02:C R.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image166.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET .  :0G5AB25 ?@>F5=B=>9 AB02:8 2K18@05BAO B>B 87 42CE 2>7<>6=KE >B25B>2 40==>9 <0B5<0B8G5A:>9 7040G8, :>B>@K9 1>;LH5 =C;O. "0: :0: @57C;LB0B0< 872;5G5=8O :>@=O O2;O5BAO 8@@0F8>=0;L=>5 G8A;> (15A:>=5G=0O 4@>1L), >B25B >:@C3;O5BAO A ?@85<;5<>9 B>G=>ABLN, =0?@8<5@, 4> A>BKE R = 22,47%.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image167.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 3. 028A8<>ABL ?@>F5=B=>9 AB02:8 >B A@>:0 =0@0I5=8O. > MB>9 AB02:5 70 420 ?5@8>40 2:;04 2K@0AB05B 2 ?>;B>@0 @070. 1I89 284 7028A8<>AB8 AB02:8 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 R >B A@>:0 N ?@8 D8:A8@>20==>< 7=0G5=88 :>MDD8F85=B0 =0@0I5=8O  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image168.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 8 2,0 ?@54AB02;5= 40;55 =0 @8A. 3. 5@E=OO :@820O A>>B25BAB2C5B 1>;LH5<C 7=0G5=8N FVIF(R; N) = 2. 040=85 0 :0:>9 A@>: (G8A;> ?@>F5=B=KE ?5@8>4>2) 2:;04 C42>8BAO ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 ?> AB02:5 R = 30%? =>68B5;L =0@0I5=8O ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image169.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET >B:C40  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image170.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  0 :0:>9 A@>: 2:;04 C42>8BAO ?@8 =0G8A;5=88 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 ?> B>9 65 AB02:5? B<5BLB5 A>>B25BAB2CNICN B>G:C =0 @8A. 3.  @8 1>;55 G0AB><, G5< >48= @07 2 3>4, =0G8A;5=88 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 2=CB@8 3>40, @07<5@ =><8=0;L=>9 3>4>2>9 AB02:8 R ?@>?>@F8>=0;L=> C<5=LH0NB (B@048F8O ?@81;865==KE 2KG8A;5=89 2>AE>48B : ?@028;C ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2), 0 4;8=C A@>:0 2 ?@>F5=B=KE ?5@8>40E C25;8G820NB 2> AB>;L:> 65 @07. 1>7=0G8< 2=CB@83>4>2CN G0AB>BC =0G8A;5=8O A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 1C:2>9 m.  A;CG05 565<5AOG=>9 :0?8B0;870F88 (m = 12) :0;5=40@=K9 A@>: 2 3>40 2K@0605BAO G8A;>< @0AG5B=KE ?5@8>4>2 ?5@8>4>2  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image172.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET <5AOF0, 0 565<5AOG=0O ?@>F5=B=0O AB02:0 ?>;CG05BAO 87 =><8=0;L=>9 3>4>2>9 45;5=85< =0 12. /A=>, GB> ?@8 >48=0:>2>9 =><8=0;L=>9 3>4>2>9 AB02:5 R C25;8G5=85 G0AB>BK =0G8A;5=8O A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 m ?@82>48B 2 :>=F5 :064>3> 3>40 : 1>;LH5<C D8=0=A>2><C @57C;LB0BC 2 2845 1C4CI59 AB>8<>AB8 FV. '5@57 N ?>;=KE ;5B  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image173.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  -DD5:B82=K< 3>4>2K< ?@>F5=B>< =07K205BAO ?@>F5=B=K9 4>E>4, ?>;CG05<K9 8=25AB>@>< 70 >48= 3>4 2 @57C;LB0B5 2;>65=8O >4=>9 45=56=>9 548=8FK ?> =><8=0;L=>9 3>4>2>9 AB02:5 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 R ?@8 G0AB>B5 =0G8A;5=8O m @07 2 3>4.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image174.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET . 1A>;NB=0O 25;8G8=0 MDD5:B82=>3> ?@>F5=B0, >B=5A5==0O : >4=>9 F5;>9 45=56=>9 548=8F5, 405B 3>4>2CN MDD5:B82=CN =>@<C ?@>F5=B0. -DD5:B82=0O 4>E>4=>ABL 2;>65=89 O2;O5BAO 8=AB@C<5=B>< ?@82545=8O CA;>289 D8=0=A>2KE :>=B@0:B>2 : A>?>AB028<><C 284C. 040=85 # 0A 5ABL A2>1>4=0O AC<<0 PV = 1000 @C1., :>B>@CN K =0<5@5=K ?CAB8BL 2 @>AB =0 12 <5AOF52 ?>4 A;>6=K5 ?@>F5=BK. C40 2K ?>;>68B5 A2>8 45=L38, 5A;8 4>ABC?=K5 0;LB5@=0B82K B0:>2K: 0=: ";8A0" ?@8=8<05B 2:;04K >B =0A5;5=8O ?>4 16% 3>4>2KE, =0G8A;O5<KE 565:20@B0;L=>. 0=: "078;8>" ?@54;0305B 12% 3>4>2KE ?@8 565<5AOG=>< =0G8A;5=88. B45;5=85 8=>AB@0==>3> 10=:0 "Carabas" 405B 20% 3>4>2KE, 2K?;0G8205<KE :064K5 ?>;3>40.  "01;8F0 6 !@02=5=85 CA;>289 ?@85<0 2:;04>2 ?> MDD5:B82=>9 =>@<5 ?@>F5=B0 0=: A (";8A0")0=: B ("078;8>")0=: C ("Carabas")16%12%20%R " =><8=0;L=0O 3>4>20O AB02:0 A;>6=KE %4122m " G0AB>B0 2=CB@83>4>2>3> =0G8A;5=8O %;4% 70 :20@B0;1% 2 <5AOF10% 70 ?>;3>40 INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image175.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET AB02:0 %, A>>B25BAB2CNI0O 4;8=5 2=CB@83>4>2>3> ?5@8>40 =0G8A;5=8O1,044 =1,0112 =1,12 =FV " 1C4CI0O AB>8<>ABL 2:;040 G5@57 1 3>4 (N = 1) A>2@5<5==KE CA;>28OE 2 A2O78 A @0728B85< A8AB5< M;5:B@>==KE ?;0B5659 ?@>F5=BK <>3CB =0G8A;OBLAO 4065 G0I5, G5< >48= @07 2 45=L. @8 15A:>=5G=> G0AB>< ( INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image176.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET ) 4@>1;5=88 3>40 =0 <0;K5 ?@>F5=B=K5 ?5@8>4K, B> 5ABL ?@8 =5?@5@K2=>< =0@0I5=88 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 ?>;CG05BAO ?>:070B5;L=K9 70:>= @>AB0  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image177.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image178.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET , B0: :0:  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image179.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET ?@8  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image180.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  ><8=0;L=CN 3>4>2CN ?@>F5=B=CN AB02:C R, O2;ONICNAO ?>:070B5;5< AB5?5=8 2 D>@<C;5 <=>68B5;O =5?@5@K2=>3> =0@0I5=8O, =07K20NB 8=B5=A82=>ABLN, 8;8 A8;>9 @>AB0. =0 A2O70=0 A 3>4>2>9 MDD5:B82=>9 =>@<>9 ?@>F5=B0  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image181.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET A>>B=>H5=85<  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image182.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET . C4CI0O AB>8<>ABL ?>A;5 =5?@5@K2=>3> =0G8A;5=8O A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 70 N ;5B  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image183.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  >=5G=K9 A;CG09  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image184.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET =07K20NB 48A:@5B=K< =0G8A;5=85< ?@>F5=B>2. 0 @50;L=CN 4>E>4=>ABL 2;>65=89 ACI5AB25==> 2;8O5B 87<5=5=85 ?>:C?0B5;L=>9 A?>A>1=>AB8 45=53 70 ?5@8>4, >E20BK205<K9 D8=0=A>2>9 >?5@0F89. @>F5AA ?045=8O ?>:C?0B5;L=>9 A?>A>1=>AB8 1C<06=KE 45=53 2A;54AB285 4>?>;=8B5;L=>9 M<8AA88 8;8 ?> ?@8G8=5 A>:@0I5=88 B>20@=>9 <0AAK ?@8 A>E@0=5=88 =587<5==>3> :>;8G5AB20 45=53 2 >1@0I5=88 =07K205BAO 8=D;OF859 (>B ;0B. influtio " 274CB85). =D;OF8O ?@>O2;O5BAO 2 ?>2KH5=88 AB>8<>AB8 687=8 8 @>AB5 F5=.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image185.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 4. !@02=8B5;L=0O 48=0<8:0 8=45:A0 F5= 8 20;NB=>3> :C@A0 2 2000 3.4 4=8< 87 ?>4E>4>2 : 87<5@5=8N @50;L=>9 ?>:C?0B5;L=>9 A?>A>1=>AB8 D8:A8@>20==>9 45=56=>9 AC<<K ?> ?@>H5AB288 A@>:0 N O2;O5BAO A>>B=5A5=85 55 A C@>2=5< 8=D;OF88 70 N ?5@8>4>2.  :064>< ?>A;54CNI5< 8=D;OF8>==>< ?5@8>45 >15AF5=820NBAO C65 @0=55 >15AF5=5==K5 45=L38, ?>MB><C @50;L=0O 25;8G8=0 1C4CI59 AB>8<>AB8 INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image186.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET , =57028A8<> >B ?@028;0 =0G8A;5=8O ?@>F5=B>2, ?@8<5=O5<>3> 4;O 55 =0@0I5=8O, =0E>48BAO 45;5=85< =0 F5?=>9 B5<? @>AB0  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image187.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET . ! 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http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image235.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 345 R " =>@<0 48A:>=B8@>20=8O; x " <8=8<0;L=> 30@0=B8@>20==0O 4>E>4=>ABL; y " C@>25=L 8=D;OF88; z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INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image239.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  @>25@:0  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image240.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  "5:CI0O AB>8<>ABL INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image241.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  M:2820;5=B=0  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image242.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET , >B=>AOI59AO : <><5=BC 2@5<5=8 "420 ?5@8>40 =0704" ?@8 A@02=5=88 ?> =>@<5 4>E>4=>AB8 10% A;>6=KE 70 >48= ?@>F5=B=K9 ?5@8>4. 040=85 @54?>;>68<, GB> D8@<0 "7<8@" 4> ?>4?8A0=8O :>=B@0:B0 C7=0;0 > B><, GB> ?@54;>65=85 55 :>=:C@5=B0 A B>G:8 7@5=8O 70:07G8:0 1>;55 ?@85<;5<>, 8 @5H8;0 A=878BL ?@>F5=B 70 >BA@>G:C ?>A;54=53> ?;0B560 A 7% 4> 5%. 0948B5 B5:CICN AB>8<>ABL ?;0B5659 ?@54?@8OB8O MB><C ?>4@O4G8:C ?@8 =>2KE CA;>28OE :>=B@0:B0. !@02=8B5 B0:65 :>=B@0:BK "<0B@0" 8 "7<8@ 5%" =0 <><5=B ?>;=>3> ?>30H5=8O 4>;30 (3>4 3) ?@8 48A:>=B8@>20=88 ?> AB02:5 9% 3>4>2KE. 5>1E>48<K5 4;O @0AG5B>2 7=0G5=8O <=>68B5;59 ?@82545=8O PVIF(9%,N), >1@0B=K5 <=>68B5;O< 1C4CI59 AB>8<>AB8 FVIF(9%,N), <>6=> =09B8 2 @01>G59 B01;8F5 =0 @8A. 19.  $8=0=A>2K5 >?5@0F88 AG8B0NBAO M:2820;5=B=K<8, 5A;8 AC<<K 4>E>40 ?> =8<, ?@82545==K5 : >4=><C 8 B><C 65 <><5=BC 2@5<5=8, A>2?040NB. $8=0=A>2K5 >?5@0F88 AG8B0NBAO M:2820;5=B=K<8 ?> C@>2=N 4>E>4=>AB8, 5A;8 8E MDD5:B82=K5 AB02:8 (8;8 1C4CI85 AB>8<>AB8 548=8G=>9 8=25AB8F88 ?> ?@>H5AB288 3>40) A>2?040NB. @>F5=B=K5 AB02:8 =07K20NBAO M:2820;5=B=K<8, 5A;8 ?@8 70<5=5 2 :>=B@0:B5 >4=>9 87 =8E =0 4@C3CN 70 B>B 65 A@>: D8=0=A>2K5 @57C;LB0BK =5 87<5=OBAO. -:2820;5=B=K5 4@C3 4@C3C 7=0G5=8O A@02=8205<KE <564C A>1>9 ?@>F5=B=KE AB02>: >1KG=> 2K2>4OBAO 87 C@02=5=8O M:2820;5=B=>AB8 " CA;>28O @025=AB20 <=>68B5;59 =0@0I5=8O 70 >4=> 8 B> 65 2@5<O =0G8A;5=8O ?@>F5=B>2. @8<5@. 0945<, 3>4>2CN AB02:C >1K:=>25==KE A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 A 5654=52=K< =0G8A;5=85<, M:2820;5=B=CN 3>4>2>9 4>E>4=>AB8 30,8%. 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B5G5=85 >4=>3> 3>40 (A<. @8A. 22)?  !@54=OO AB02:0 ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 >?@545;O5BAO 87 CA;>28O @025=AB20 <=>68B5;59 =0@0I5=8O 70 ?>;=K9 A@>: N, @02=K9 AC<<5 1>;55 <5;:8E 8=B5@20;>2 2@5<5=8  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image245.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET , =0 :>B>@KE ?5@5<5==0O ?@>F5=B=0O AB02:0 A>E@0=O;0AL ?>AB>O==>9 =0 C@>2=OE  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image246.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET A>>B25BAB25==>.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image247.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image248.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 22. 025=AB2> <=>68B5;59 =0@0I5=8O ?> M:2820;5=B=K< AB02:0< 70 1 3>4 = 4 :20@B0;0. @8<5@. > 2:;040< 4> 2>AB@51>20=8O 2 @C1;OE A =0G0;0 1999 3. 459AB2>20;0 AB02:0 3%, A 1 45:01@O 1999 3. >=0 1K;0 A=865=0 4> 2%, 0 A 21 <0@B0 2000 3. 4> 1% 3>4>2KE. 0945< A@54=NN AB02:C ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 70 ?5@8>4 A 01/05/1999 ?> 01/05/2000 (420 20@80=B0 >@30=870F88 2KG8A;5=89 2 B01;8F5 A<. =0 @8A. 23).  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image249.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 23. !@54=OO ?@>F5=B=0O AB02:0, 2725H5==0O ?> ?5@8>40< 459AB28O. !@54=OO AB02:0 ?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2 5ABL 0@8D<5B8G5A:0O A@54=OO A 25A0<8, @02=K<8 4;8B5;L=>AB8 >B45;L=KE ?5@8>4>2.  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A?>;L7CO ?@82545==K5 =0 @8A. 24 40==K5 >A:><AB0B0 $4 >1 87<5=5=88 8=45:A0 ?>B@518B5;LA:8E F5=, >F5=8< ?>:070B5;L 8=D;OF88 70 <5AOF, B> 5ABL =0945< B0:>9 A@54=5<5AOG=K9 B5<? @>AB0 8=45:A0 ?>B@518B5;LA:8E F5= h, GB>  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image252.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  345 t " ?>@O4:>2K9 =><5@ <5AOF0 2 2000 3., t = 1, % ,10; bt " 1078A=K9 8=45:A F5= 2 <5AOF5 t ?> A@02=5=8N A 45:01@5< 1999 3. (t = 0); ct " F5?=>9 8=45:A F5= 2 <5AOF5 t ?> A@02=5=8N A ?@54K4CI8< <5AOF5< t " 1.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image253.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 24. 8=0<8:0 ?>:070B5;O 8=D;OF88 70 10 <5AOF52 2000 3. 45AL ?>:070= 20@80=B >@30=870F88 @5:C@@5=B=>3> B01;8G=>3> 2KG8A;5=8O 1078A=>3> 70 ?5@8>4 t 8=45:A0 bt :0: ?@>872545=8O F5?=>3> 8=45:A0 40==>3> ?5@8>40 A5 =0 1078A=K9 8=45:A ?@54?>A;54=53> ?5@8>40 bt-1 A CG5B>< B>3>, GB> b1 = c1.  @57C;LB0B5 ?>;CG5=> 7=0G5=85 b10 = 116,5%. C@54=5<5AOG=K9 8=45:A ?>B@518B5;LA:8E F5= (1 + h) =0E>48< ?> D>@<C;5 A@54=53> 35><5B@8G5A:>3>, ?@8=O2 4;8=C :064>3> <5AOF0 70 ?>AB>O==CN 25;8G8=C (1 <5AOF = 30 4=59). @8 MB>< ?@54?>;>65=88 2 D>@<C;5 A@54=52725H5==>3> A@54=53> 35><5B@8G5A:>3> 2A5 25A>2K5 ?>:070B5;8 nt = 1, 0 8E AC<<0 N = 10. ">340  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image254.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  ;O ?5@5>F5=:8 A CG5B>< 8=D;OF88 AB>8<>AB8 >A=>2=KE D>=4>2 8 8<CI5AB20 2 <><5=B @50;870F88 8A?>;L7C5BAO 45D;OB>@   (=45:A AB>8<>AB8 50;87C5<>3> <CI5AB20 @54?@8OB8O)5. 0 @8A. 25. ?>:070=> ?>:20@B0;L=>5 C25;8G5=85 @50;L=>9 AB>8<>AB8 8<CI5AB20, ?@8>1@5B5==>3> 2 =0G0;5 1998 3. ?> F5=5 80 <;=. @C1., : <><5=BC @50;870F88 2 =0G0;5 2001 3. (157 CG5B0 0<>@B870F88).  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"01;8F0 10 0@80=BK @5:C@@5=B=>3> :>48@>20=8O ?@028; =0G8A;5=8O ?@>F5=B>2  >AB ?> ?@028;C@>F5=B=0O AB02:0 2K@065=0?@>ABKE ?@>F5=B>2A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2G8A;>2>9 :>=AB0=B>9 0,15=C3+0,15*C$3=D3+0,15*D3 8;8 =1,15*D301A>;NB=>9 AAK;:>9 B$1=C3+B$1*C$3=D3+B$1*D38<5=5< OG59:8 AB02:0=C3+AB02:0*C$3=(1+AB02:0)*D3 INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image257.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 27. >45;8 @>AB0 AB>8<>AB8 2:;040. @8<5@ @0A?>;>65=8O 40==KE =0 @01>G5< ;8AB5 8 :>48@>20=8O =5>1E>48<KE 2KG8A;5=89 ?@82545= =0 @8A. 27 2 @568<5 2K2>40 D>@<C;. 0945==K5 ?> MB8< D>@<C;0< G8A;>2K5 7=0G5=8O 40=K =0 @8A. 28. @8 8A?>;L7>20=88 @5:C@@5=B=KE D>@<C; 2 ?@>F5=B=KE 2KG8A;5=8OE =><5@0 ?5@8>4>2 2 O2=>< 2845 2 @0AG5B5 =5 CG0AB2CNB, 0 2K?>;=ONB 2 B01;8F5 B>;L:> @>;L ?>OA=ONI8E =04?8A59. ><5@ ?@>F5=B=>3> ?5@8>40 (8 A>>B25BAB2CNI53> G;5=0 ?@>3@5A88) AB0=5B 2;8ONI8< ?0@0<5B@>< ?@8 4@C3>< ?>4E>45 " @0AG5B5 =0 >A=>25 >1I59 D>@<C;K G;5=0 ?@>3@5A88.  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'8A;> 2>7<>6=KE ?5@5AB0=>2>: 87 N M;5<5=B>2 @02=> ?@>872545=8N 2A5E =0BC@0;L=KE G8A5; >B 1 4> N. -B> ?@>872545=85 =07K205BAO N-D0:B>@80; 8 >1>7=0G05BAO N! = 1*2*...*N. > >?@545;5=8N, 1!=1. 0B5< 25@=> @5:C@@5=B=>5 ?@028;> (N + 1)! = (N + 1) * N!  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image264.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 33. 5:C@@5=B=0O B01;8G=0O <>45;L @0AG5B0 N! @8<5@. =25AB>@ 2=>A8B AC<<C 5 <;= @C1 =0 AG5B A =0G8A;5=85< A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 ?> AB02:5 8% 70 ?5@8>4., 8 70B5< 42064K 2 :>=F5 :064>3> @0AG5B=>3> ?5@8>40 4>102;O5B =0 AG5B AB>;L:> 65. 0:CN AC<<C C40ABAO B0:8< >1@07>< =0@0AB8BL 70 3 ?5@8>40? "01;8F0 11 C4CI0O AB>8<>ABL ?>B>:0 ?;0B5659 (<;= @C1.) 5@8>4!C<<0 2:;040 A ?@>F5=B0<8 2 :>=F5 ?5@8>40>2K9 ?;0B56 2 :>=F5 ?5@8>405@5E>4OI89 >AB0B>: =0 AG5B5 2 :>=F5 ?5@8>40 10,000 =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image265.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 5,0005,000 = 0,000 + 5,00025,400 =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image266.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 5,00010,400 = 5,400 + 5,000311,232 =  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image267.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET 5,00016,232 = 11,232 + 5,000@8 :0:>9 ?@>F5=B=>9 AB02:5 B5 65 B@8 ?;0B560 ?> 5 <;= @C1. :064K9, @53C;O@=> 2=>A8<K5 =0 AG5B 2 :>=F5 ?5@8>40, ?>72>;OB =0:>?8BL AC<<C =5 16,232 <;= @C1., 0 20,000 <;= @C1.? 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INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image285.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 45. 80;>3>2>5 >:=> DC=:F88 NPV='! (2 =>259H59 @CA8D8:0F88). 040=85 0: >F5=8BL A@>: >:C?05<>AB8 8=25AB8F8>==>3> ?@>5:B0 (A<. @8A. 46)? 0:>9 A@>: >:C?05<>AB8 :>@>G5 " ?@>AB>9 8;8 48A:>=B8@>20==K9?  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image286.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 46. ?@545;5=85 ?@>AB>3> 8 48A:>=B8@>20==>3> A@>:>2 >:C?05<>AB8 ?@>5:B0. 06=K< :@8B5@85< ?@8=OB8O 8=25AB8F8>==K9 @5H5=89 =0 >A=>25 48A:>=B8@>20=8O 45=56=>3> ?>B>:0 O2;O5BAO 2=CB@5==OO =>@<0 4>E>4=>AB8 (0=3; internal rate of return). -B> B0:>5 7=0G5=85 =>@<K <0B5<0B8G5A:>3> 48A:>=B8@>20=8O, ?@8 :>B>@>< B5:CI0O AB>8<>ABL 45=56=>3> ?>B>:0 01A>;NB=> @02=0 8=25AB8F8O<. =CB@5==OO =>@<0 4>E>4=>AB8 O2;O5BAO :>@=5< IRR =5O2=>3> C@02=5=8O, 2 ;52>9 G0AB8 :>B>@>3> AB>8B <=>3>G;5= (?>;8=><) AB5?5=8 N.  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"8? 0==C8B5B0 70405B @0A?@545;5=85 n ?;0B5659 >48=0:>2>3> @07<5@0 ?> 3@0=8F0< ?@>F5=B=KE ?5@8>4>2 2=CB@8 A@>:0 0==C8B5B0.  7028A8<>AB8 >B <><5=B0 ?>ABC?;5=8O ?5@2>3> ?;0B560 @07;8G0NB 420 B8?0 ?>B>:>2 ?;0B5659 " ?@5=C<5@0=4> (?5@2K9 ?;0B56 2 =0G0;5 ?5@2>3> ?5@8>40) 8 ?>AB=C<5@0=4> (2 :>=F5). 0 AG5B 1>;55 @0==53> ?>ABC?;5=8O 45=56=KE A@54AB2 8 C4;8=5==>3> =0 >48= ?5@8>4 A@>:0 =0G8A;5=8O ?@>F5=B>2 2 A;CG05 ?@5=C<5@0=4> <>6=> 4>AB83=CBL 1>;LH8E D8=0=A>2KE @57C;LB0B>2 ?> A@02=5=8N A ?>B>:>< ?;0B5659, 2=>A8<KE 2 :>=F5 ?5@8>40. @8<5@. OBL ?;0B5659 ?> B@8 @C1;O :064K9 =C6=> 2=5AB8 ?> AE5<5 ?@5=C<5@0=4>. >;CG0B5;L 0==C8B5B0 8A?>;L7C5B MB8 A@54AB20 A 4>E>4=>ABLN R = 8% 70 ?5@8>4 <564C ?;0B560<8. 0:>20 1C4CI0O AB>8<>ABL FV MB>3> A@>G=>3> 0==C8B5B0 (A@>: n = 5) 2 :>=F5 ?OB>3> ?5@8>40 2 @57C;LB0B5 =0G8A;5=8O ?@>F5=B>2 =0 2A5 ?>ABC?82H85 ?;0B568? 1>7=0G8< @07<5@ >4=>3> ?;0B560 1C:2>9 A. ">340  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image292.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET   CA;>28OE =0H53> ?@8<5@0 ?>B>: ?;0B5659 ?@5=C<5@0=4> ?>72>;O5B 8E ?>;CG0B5;N =0:>?8BL AC<<C 19,01 @C1., 0 2 A;CG05 0==C8B5B0 ?>ABC<5@0=4> >=0 1K A>AB028;0 B>;L:> 17,60 @C1. (A<. @8A. 50) .  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image293.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 50. KG8A;5=85 1C4CI59 AB>8<>AB8 :064>3> ?;0B560 8 0==C8B5B0 ?@5=C<5@0=4> 2 :>=F5 A@>:0. 040=85 0:CN AC<<C 4>AB0B>G=> 2;>68BL =0 5 ?5@8>4>2 A =0G8A;5=85< 8% A;>6=KE, GB>1K 2 :>=F5 A@>:0 A=OBL 19,01 @C1.?  "5:CI0O AB>8<>ABL 15AA@>G=>3> 0==C8B5B0 (25G=>9 @5=BK ?@8 15A:>=5G=> 1>;LH>< A@>:5 n) 5ABL AC<<0 2A5E G;5=>2 15A:>=5G=> C1K20NI59 35><5B@8G5A:>9 ?@>3@5AA88 A> 7=0<5=0B5;5< 1/(1+R), :>B>@0O ?@8 R < "2 8;8 R > 0 AE>48BAO.  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INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image298.gif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c ?OB=04F0B8;5B=53> 2>7@0AB0 2 :>=F5 :064>3> <5AOF0 @53C;O@=> 2=>A8B ?> 15 4>;;. =0 A15@530B5;L=K9 AG5B 2 10=:, =0G8A;ONI89 =0 2AN @0ABCICN AC<<C A;>6=K5 ?@>F5=BK ?> =><8=0;L=>9 AB02:5 15% 3>4>2KE.  :0:>< 2>7@0AB5 MB>B G5;>25: <>65B AB0BL <8;;8>=5@><? K@078< A@>: (G8A;> ?5@8>48G5A:8E ?;0B5659) 87 D>@<C;K 1C4CI59 AB>8<>AB8 0==C8B5B0:  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image299.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  040=85 A?>;L7CO >?@545;5=85 8 A2>9AB20 ;>30@8D<0, A0<>AB>OB5;L=> ?@>4>;68B5 2K2>4 D>@<C;K A@>:0 =0:>?;5=8O <8;;8>=0 2 CA;>28OE 7040G8 8 =0948B5 >B25B =0 ?>AB02;5==K9 2>?@>A.   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image300.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 53. @8<5=5=85 DC=:F88  =NPER 4;O >?@545;5=8O A@>:0 0==C8B5B0. 0945==K9 A@>: 2K@065= 2 <5AOF0E. 542/12=45 ?>;=KE ;5B, B0: GB> AC<<0 15+45 405B 8A:><K9 2 7040G5 2>7@0AB 60 ;5B. 0:CN AC<<C 4>AB0B>G=> 2;>68BL =0 B0:>9 65 A@>: 548=>2@5<5==>, GB>1K ?@8 B>9 65 4>E>4=>AB8 ?@8 565<5AOG=>< =0G8A;5=88 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 =0:>?8BL 1 <;=.4>;;.? B25B: -1190,948=PV(0,15/12;542;;1000000). @8 :0:>9 3>4>2>9 ?@>F5=B=>9 AB02:5 C40ABAO =0:>?8BL <8;;8>= : 55 3>40<? 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INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image304.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image305.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET >;CG05BAO 10;0=A>20O <>45;L @>AB0 A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2, CG8BK20NI0O =0?@02;5=85 42865=8O A@54AB2: B>, GB> 40;8 2 4>;3 " ?>;>68B5;L=>, 0 B>, GB> 1C45B ?>B>< 2>72@0I0BLAO :@548B>@C A ?@>F5=B0<8 >1@0B=>, A B>G:8 7@5=8O 4>;6=8:0, >B@8F0B5;L=>B>@>9 A><=>68B5;L ?> C<>;G0=8N @025= 548=8F5 (A;CG0N ?>AB=C<5@0=4> A>>B25BAB2C5B B8?=0), 0 5A;8 >F5=8205BAO 0==C8B5B ?@5=C<5@0=4> (B8?=1), B> ?>;CG05BAO ?@>F5=B=K9 <=>68B5;L (1+RATE), >B@060NI89 4>?>;=8B5;L=K9 ?5@8>4 =0G8A;5=8O A;>6=KE ?@>F5=B>2 70 AG5B 1>;55 @0==53> =0G0;0 ?>ABC?;5=8O ?>B>:0 ?;0B5659 ;O ACI5AB2>20=8O =5=C;52KE :>@=59 MB>3> A>>B=>H5=8O 7=0:8 25;8G8= 70B@0B 8 ?>ABC?;5=89 4>;6=K 1KBL 4@C3 4@C3C ?@>B82>?>;>6=K  @8<5@. =25AB>@ 2K405B 4>;6=8:C :@548B 2 >1J5<5 300 BKA. @C1. >72@0B 4>;30 ?;0=8@C5BAO 2 2845 :20@B0;L=>3> 0==C8B5B0 A 2K?;0B>9 75 BKA. @C1. ?>AB=C<5@0=4> (>1K:=>25==>9 D8=0=A>2>9 @5=BK) =0 ?@>BO65=88 5 :20@B0;>2. 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"0: ?>AB5?5==> A 7040==>9 B>G=>ABLN ?>418@05BAO ?@>F5=B 0==C8B5B0. AB@>5==0O DC=:F8O D8=0=A>20O DC=:F8O RATE @01>B05B =5 ?> 0=0;8B8G5A:>9 D>@<C;5 (2 >1I5< A;CG05 55 =5 ACI5AB2C5B!), 0 >1@0I05BAO : ?@>F54C@5 8B5@0B82=>3> ?>41>@0 :>@=59 <=>3>G;5=0 <5B>4>< LNB>=03.  INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image308.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A.56 @8<5=5=85 DC=:F88  =RATE 4;O =0E>645=8O 4>E>4=>AB8 0==C8B5B0. 040=85 A?>;L7CO ?@>F54C@C Excel >41>@ ?0@0<5B@0, ?>43>=8B5 : 300 BKA. @C1. 7=0G5=85 AC<<K AB@>:8 =C;52>3> ?5@8>40 2 "25@E=5< 0==C8B5B=>< B@5C3>;L=8:5" (A<. @8A. 57). 0:0O ?@>F5=B=0O AB02:0 R 70 ?5@8>4 4>AB02;O5B MBC B5:CICN AB>8<>ABL? >2B>@8B5 ?>41>@, 8A?>;L7CO 2 :0G5AB25 7028A8<>9 >B 8AE>4=>3> 7=0G5=8O AB02:8 R D>@<C;K >1@0I5=85 :> 2AB@>5==>9 DC=:F88 PV=.   INCLUDEPICTURE "http://koi.cfin.ru/finanalysis/smirnova/images/image309.gif" \* MERGEFORMATINET  8A. 57. 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