ࡱ> j l Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i 5@xbjbj22 0XX rrrt+̑̑̑̑x+R((((( ID$DR@Crt C ((o=  (r(2&Lr3 ( AH̑ . T"0R .4\3  j$z 3 nr (CC++hd++h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CABL B2>8 45;0 1C4CB B0:8<8, :0:8<8 BK E>B5; 1K 2845BL 8E 2 AB0@>AB8. 0@: 2@5;89 ;020 1. 1I0O E0@0:B5@8AB8:0 AB@0B538G5A:>3> C?@02;5=8O 1. !CI=>ABL AB@0B538G5A:>3> C?@02;5=8O "5@<8= AB@0B538G5A:>5 C?@02;5=85 1K; 22545= 2 >18E>4 =0 ABK:5 60 70-E 33. 4;O B>3>, GB>1K >1>7=0G8BL @07=8FC <564C B5:CI8< C?@02;5=85< =0 C@>2=5 ?@>872>4AB20 8 C?@02;5=85<, >ACI5AB2;O5<K< =0 2KAH5< C@>2=5. 5>1E>48<>ABL D8:A0F88 B0:>3> @07;8G8O 1K;0 2K720=0 2 ?5@2CN >G5@54L 87<5=5=8O<8 2 CA;>28OE 2545=8O 187=5A0. 07@01>B:0 8459 AB@0B538G5A:>3> C?@02;5=8O =0H;0 >B@065=85 2 @01>B0E B0:8E 02B>@>2, :0: Frankenhofs and Granger (1971), Ansoff (1972), Schendel and Hatten (1972), Irwin (1974) 8 4@. 54CI59 84559, >B@060NI59 ACI=>ABL ?5@5E>40 >B >?5@0B82=>3> C?@02;5=8O : AB@0B538G5A:><C, O28;0AL 845O =5>1E>48<>AB8 ?5@5=>A0 F5=B@0 2=8<0=8O 2KAH53> @C:>2>4AB20 =0 >:@C65=85, 4;O B>3> GB>1K A>>B25BAB2CNI8< >1@07>< 8 A2>52@5<5==> @5038@>20BL =0 ?@>8AE>4OI85 2 =5< 87<5=5=8O. >6=> C:070BL =0 =5A:>;L:> :>=AB@C:B82=KE >?@545;5=89, :>B>@K5 1K;8 ?@54;>65=K 02B>@8B5B=K<8 @07@01>BG8:0<8 B5>@88 AB@0B538G5A:>3> C?@02;5=8O. 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B>@>5  MB> B>, GB> AB5?5=L 2>7459AB28O >B45;L=KE :><?>=5=B <0:@>>:@C65=8O =0 @07;8G=K5 >@30=870F88 @07;8G=0.  G0AB=>AB8, AB5?5=L 2;8O=8O 7028A8B >B @07<5@0 >@30=870F88, 55 >B@0A;52>9 ?@8=04;56=>AB8, B5@@8B>@80;L=>3> @0A?>;>65=8O 8 B.?. !G8B05BAO, GB> :@C?=K5 >@30=870F88 8A?KBK20NB 1>;LHCN 7028A8<>ABL >B <0:@>>:@C65=8O, G5< <5;:85. 'B>1K CG8BK20BL MB> ?@8 87CG5=88 <0:@>>:@C65=8O, >@30=870F8O 4>;6=0 >?@545;8BL 4;O A51O, :0:85 87 2=5H=8E D0:B>@>2, >B=>AOI8EAO : :064>9 87 :><?>=5=B <0:@>>:@C65=8O, >:07K20NB 7=0G8B5;L=>5 2;8O=85 =0 55 45OB5;L=>ABL. @><5 B>3>, >@30=870F8O 4>;6=0 A>AB028BL A?8A>: B5E 2=5H=8E D0:B>@>2, :>B>@K5 O2;ONBAO ?>B5=F80;L=K<8 =>A8B5;O<8 C3@>7 4;O >@30=870F88. "0:65 =5>1E>48<> 8<5BL A?8A>: B5E 2=5H=8E D0:B>@>2, 87<5=5=8O 2 :>B>@KE <>3CB >B:@KBL 4>?>;=8B5;L=K5 2>7<>6=>AB8 4;O >@30=870F88.  ?@0:B8:5 187=5A0 8>=5@ @>AA89A:>3> :><?LNB5@=>3> ?@>872>4AB20 (?@028;L=55 3>2>@8BL > :><?LNB5@=>9 A1>@:5) D8@<0 :20@8CA !8AB5<5 =D>@< 2 0?@5;5 1995 3. >1JO28;0 > B><, GB> >=0 ?@0:B8G5A:8 2KE>48B 87 MB>3> 187=5A0 8 :>=F5=B@8@C5BAO =0 ?@>4065 2 >AA88 70@C156=KE :><?LNB5@>2.  A2O78 A B5< GB> =0<5G0;AO 2KE>4 =0 @>AA89A:89 @K=>: B0:8E 8725AB=KE ?@>872>48B5;59 :><?LNB5@>2, :0: $C478FC 8 8468B0;, :20@8CA =045O;AO 4>18BLAO CA?5E0 2 A1KB>2>< 187=5A5. ><?LNB5@=>5 65 ?@>872>4AB2> 1K;> @5H5=> 70:>=A5@28@>20BL 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 =5 A;>60BAO ?@54?>AK;:8 4;O 2>72@0B0 2 ?@>872>4AB25==K9 187=5A. !1>@:>9 ?5@A>=0;L=KE :><?LNB5@>2 D8@<0 :20@8CA 70=O;0AL 2 1990 3. ">340 MB> 1K;> @52>;NF8>==K< =0G8=0=85<.  =5 AB>;L:> ?>B><C, GB> :20@8CA, 8<5O 2 B> 2@5<O AB0BCA !, @5H8; 70=OBLAO ?@>872>4AB2><, 0 =5, :0: ?>402;ONI55 1>;LH8=AB2> >AB0;L=KE A>25BA:8E :><?LNB5@=KE D8@<, 8<?>@B>< :><?LNB5@=>9 B5E=8:8. > 2 ?5@2CN >G5@54L ?>B><C, GB> ?@54?@8OB85 >B:@K;> F5;K9 702>4 ?> A1>@:5 :><?LNB5@>2 2 3. (CO 20=>2A:>9 >1;0AB8.  B5 023CAB>2A:85 4=8 1990 3. 1K;> >G5=L <=>3> 2>AB>@65==KE >B7K2>2 8 ;5AB=KE 2KA:07K20=89 ?> ?>2>4C =0G8=0=8O D8@<K :20@8CA. @>3=>7K 1K;8 8A:;NG8B5;L=> >?B8<8AB8G=K<8. >I=>AB8 702>40 2 (C5 ?>72>;O;8 ?@>872>48BL 10 BKA. :><?LNB5@>2 2 <5AOF.  CA;>28OE A>F80;8AB8G5A:>9 M:>=><8:8 206=> 1K;> 2?8A0BLAO 2 A8AB5<C ?;0=>2KE ?>AB02>:. $8@<5 C40;>AL 70:;NG8BL 2K3>4=K9 4>3>2>@ A !>N7-:><?;5:B><, >ACI5AB2;O2H8< ?>AB02:8 ?5@A>=0;L=KE :><?LNB5@>2 2 @0<:0E 2A53> !>25BA:>3> !>N70.  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G5< ?@>O2;O5BAO 381:>ABL AB@0B538G5A:>3> C?@02;5=8O ?@8 53> A@02=5=88 A >1KG=K< C?@02;5=85<? @82548B5 ?@8<5@K, 8;;NAB@8@CNI85 >B25B. 3. @82548B5 ?@8<5@K >@30=870F89, ?@>83@02H8E 2 :>=:C@5=B=>9 1>@L15 ?> ?@8G8=5 =525@=>3> AB@0B538G5A:>3> ?@>3=>70. 4. @82548B5 ?@8<5@K AB@0B5389 8 ?@028; 8 ?@>0=0;878@C9B5 B>, :0: >=8 A2O70=K <564C A>1>9. 5. 07>28B5 B8?K @K=>G=KE AB@0B5389, :>B>@K5 <>3CB >ACI5AB2;OBLAO D8@<>9. @82548B5 ?@8<5@K, 8;;NAB@8@CNI85 >B25B. 6.5@5G8A;8B5 MB0;>==K5 AB@0B5388 @0728B8O 187=5A0 8 ?>AB0@09B5AL ?@>0=0;878@>20BL =0 :>=:@5B=KE ?@8<5@0E 2>7<>6=>AB8 8 B@C4=>AB8 @50;870F88 :064>9 AB@0B5388. 7. 0AA<>B@8B=5 :0:CN-=81C4L :><18=8@>20==CN AB@0B538N 8 C:068B5 =0 B5 CA;>28O,?@8 :>B>@KE >=0 <>65B 1KBL CA?5H=> @50;87>20=0. 8.1JOA=8B5, ?>G5<C A5@F528=0 2K?>;=5=8O AB@0B5388- MB> ?@>2545=85 AB@0B538G5A:8E 87<5=5=89 9. 0AA<>B@8B5 @>;L 8 <5AB> AB@0B538G5A:>3> :>=B@>;O 2 AB@0B538G5A:>< C?@02;5=88. 81;8>3@0D8G5A:89 A?8A>: 1. Schendel D.E., Hatten KJ. 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