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N.Y., L., 1975) 1K;0 >?C1;8:>20=0 2 =5A:>;L:> 8=>9 @540:F88 2 "Investment in Human Beings", NBER Special Conference 15, Supplement to "Journal of Political Economy", October 1962, p. 9-49. 5@52>4  HYPERLINK "http://www.libertarium.ru/libertarium/kapelushnikov"  .. 0?5;NH=8:>20.5@2>=0G0;L=> F5;L =0AB>OI53> 8AA;54>20=8O A2>48;0AL : >F5=:5 45=56=KE =>@< >B40G8 A@54=53> 8 2KAH53> >1@07>20=8O 2 !>548=5==KE (B0B0E. ;O B>3>, GB>1K ?><5AB8BL MB8 >F5=:8 2 A>>B25BAB2CNI89 :>=B5:AB, 1K; ?@54;>65= :@0B:89 =01@>A>: B5>@88 2;>65=89 2 G5;>25G5A:89 :0?8B0;. > 2A:>@5 <=5 AB0;> OA=>, GB> >4=>9 B>;L:> ?5@5D>@<C;8@>2:8 8<5NI59AO B5>@88 =54>AB0B>G=>; E>BO ?> ?@>1;5<5 4>E>4>2 @07;8G=KE ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=KE 8 >1@07>20B5;L=KE 3@C?? 8<5;8AL 206=K5 ?8>=5@A:85 8AA;54>20=8O, ?@0:B8G5A:8 >BACBAB2>20;8 ?>?KB:8 >A<KA;5=8O (5A;8 >=8 2>>1I5 ?@54?@8=8<0;8AL) ?@>F5AA0 8=25AB8@>20=8O 2 ;N459 A >1I59 B>G:8 7@5=8O 8 A:>;L:>-=81C4L ?>;=>3> 0=0;870 2KB5:0NI8E >BAN40 M<?8@8G5A:8E A;54AB289. 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A5 45;>, :>=5G=>, 2 3;C1>:> C:>@5=82H5<AO =565;0=88 B@0:B>20BL ;N459 2 :0G5AB25 :0?8B0;0 8 2KB5:0NI59 >BAN40 B5=45=F88 AG8B0BL 4>E>4>< (earnings) 2A5 ?>ABC?;5=8O 2 2845 70@01>B=>9 ?;0BK. 5@5?;5B5=85 AG5B>2 ?> :0?8B0;C 8 ?> ?@81K;O< 8 C1KB:0< <>3;> 1K ?@82>48BL : B><C, GB> @538AB@8@C5<K5 "4>E>4K" >1CG0NI8EAO >:07K20;8AL 1K :@09=5 =87:8<8 8;8 4065 >B@8F0B5;L=K<8, E>BO 8E 4>;3>2@5<5==K5, 8;8 ?>687=5==K5, 70@01>B:8 <>3;8 1K =0<=>3> ?@52>AE>48BL A@54=89 C@>25=L. >A:>;L:C >A=>2=0O G0ABL <>;>4568 ?>;CG05B :0:CN-B> ?>43>B>2:C 8 ?>A:>;L:C >1CG0NI85AO 8<5NB, :0: ?@028;>, 1>;55 =87:85 B5:CI85 8 1>;55 2KA>:85 1C4CI85 70@01>B:8 ?> A@02=5=8N A B5<8, :B> 55 =5 ?>;CG0NB, C B5:CI8E 70@01>B:>2 <>;>4KE <C6G8= [2K@065=85 "<>;>4K5 <C6G8=K", 0 =5 <>;>4K5 A5<L8 8A?>;L7C5BAO ?>B><C, GB>, :0: ?>:070; 6. 8=F5@ (A<. 53> Labor Force Participation of Married Women. "Aspects of Labor Economics". Princeton for NBER, 1962), CG0AB85 2 @01>G59 A8;5 65=K ?>;>68B5;L=> A2O70=> A @07=>ABLN <564C 4>;3>2@5<5==K< 8 B5:CI8< 4>E>40<8 <C60. #G0AB85 65=I8= 2 @01>G59 A8;5, B0:8< >1@07><, 45;05B :>@@5;OF8N <564C B5:CI8< 4>E>4>< A5<L8 8 4>;3>2@5<5==K< 4>E>4>< <C60 1>;55 A8;L=>9, G5< <564C B5:CI8< 8 4>;3>2@5<5==K< 4>E>40<8 <C60] :>@@5;OF8O A C@>2=5< B5:CI53> ?>B@51;5=8O <>65B 1KBL =5 B>;L:> A;0155, G5< C 8E 65 4>;3>2@5<5==KE 70@01>B:>2, => 4065 7=0:8 <>3CB >:07K20BLAO 2 ?5@2>< 8 2> 2B>@>< A;CG05 ?@>B82>?>;>6=K<8. [ 0AE>645=85 2 7=0:0E =52>7<>6=> 2> D@84<5=>2A:>9 B5>@88 ?>B@518B5;LA:>3> ?>2545=8O, ?>B><C GB> 2 =59 ?@54?>;0305BAO, GB>, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, 2 >1I5< A;CG05 <564C :@0B:>A@>G=K< 8 4>;3>2@5<5==K< (B.5. ?5@<0=5=B=K<) 4>E>40<8 :>@@5;OF8O >BACBAB2C5B (A<. 53> A Theory >f the Consumption Function. Princeton for NBER, 1957); O 65 4>?CA:0N, GB> C <>;>4568 <564C MB8<8 ?5@5<5==K<8 <>65B 1KBL >B@8F0B5;L=0O :>@@5;OF8O.] 5 B0: 402=> ?>4 A><=5=85 1K;> ?>AB02;5=> G0AB> 2AB@5G0NI55AO CB25@645=85 >1 >BACBAB288 2 AG5B5 ?@81K;59 8 C1KB:>2 0<>@B870F8>==KE =0G8A;5=89 4;O G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0. [!<. Christ !. Patinkin on Money, Interest and Prices. -- "Journal of Political Economy", August 1957, p. 352; Hamburger W. The Relation of Consumption to Wealth and the Wage Rate. -- "Econometrica", January 1955] KG5B 87 70@01>B:>2 0<>@B870F8>==KE >BG8A;5=89 45;05BAO, ?> :@09=59 <5@5, 2 A;CG05 ?>43>B>2:8 =0 @01>G5< <5AB5, ?>A:>;L:C 55 AB>8<>ABL ?>;=>ABLN "A?8AK205BAO" 2 B5G5=85 ?5@8>40 ?>43>B>2:8. <>@B870F8O >AO705<>3> :0?8B0;0 =8:>340 =5 >ACI5AB2;O5BAO >4=8< <0E><, 0 "A?8AK205BAO", 8;8 =0G8A;O5BAO, 2 B5G5=85 A@>:0, ?@8<5@=> A>>B25BAB2CNI53> ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 53> M:>=><8G5A:>9 687=8. !;54>20B5;L=>, G5;>25G5A:89 8 >AO705<K9 :0?8B0; @07;8G0NBAO, ?>-2848<><C, A:>@55 @0A?@545;5=85< 0<>@B870F8>==KE >BG8A;5=89 2> 2@5<5=8, 0 =5 8E =0;8G85< 8;8 >BACBAB285< [C4 . (A<. 53> Education Expenditures and Income Tax. In: "Economics of Higher Education". Ed. by Selma J. Mushkin. Wash., 1962) CB25@6405B, GB> >1;040B5;O< >1@07>20=8O =C6=> @07@5H0BL 2KG8B0BL 87 4>E>40 0<>@B870F8>==K5 =0G8A;5=8O 2 @07<5@5 ?;0BK 70 >1CG5=85. > >G5284=>, GB> B0:>3> 2KG5B0 =5 B@51C5BAO 4;O 8745@65: ?>43>B>2:8 ?> <5ABC @01>BK, 0 B0:65, :0: ?>:070=> =865, 4;O :>A25==KE 8745@65: >1@07>20=8O. 0 A0<>< 45;5 <>6=> 3>2>@8BL A:>@55 >1 >1@0B=><, > B><, GB> 4;O B0:8E 8=25AB8F89 4>?CA:05BAO A;8H:>< 1>;LH0O 8;8 A;8H:>< 1KAB@0O 0<>@B870F8O], B0: GB> 8<5==> 2>7459AB285 CA:>@5==>3> "A?8A0=8O" G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0 =0 B@C4>2K5 4>E>4K 8 A;54>20;> 1K ?>4G5@:820BL 8 87CG0BL. -B> >1AB>OB5;LAB2> <>6=> 2K@078BL 8=0G5 8 2 1>;55 AB@>3>9 D>@<5.  8450;L=>< A;CG05 0<>@B870F8O :0?8B0;L=>3> 0:B820 2 B5G5=85 ;N1>3> ?5@8>40 1K;0 1K @02=0 87<5=5=8N 2 53> F5==>AB8 70 MB> 2@5<O.  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[!<. Manpower Management and Compensation. Report of the Cordiner Committee, Wash., 1957, vol. 1, Ch. 2 8 >?C1;8:>20==K5 B0< 65 <0B5@80;K 48A:CAA88. @<59A:85 2;0AB8 E>B5;8 1K =5 ?@>AB> ?@5>4>;5BL MBC >B@8F0B5;L=CN 2708<>A2O7L, => 4>18BLAO ?>;>68B5;L=>9, ?>A:>;L:C >=8 ?@>872>4OB AB>;L :@C?=K5 2;>65=8O 2 ?>43>B>2:C 2KA>:>:20;8D8F8@>20==>3> ?5@A>=0;0. !<. B0:65 1;5ABOICN @01>BC: Smith G. Differential Pay for Military Technicians. Unpublished Ph. 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">B "?;0AB" 70@01>B:>2, :>B>@K9 A>>B25BAB2C5B 40==><C C@>2=N >1@07>20=8O, 8 5ABL 45=56=K9 4>E>4 >B =53>.  MB>< A;CG05 M:>=><8G5A:89 MDD5:B >B 2KAH53> >1@07>20=8O @025= 548=8F5 ?>687=5==KE 70@01>B:>2 42CE ;8F: >4=>3>, >:>=G82H53> :>;;546, 8 4@C3>3>, ?>;CG82H53> A@54=55 >1@07>20=85. 0@01>B=CN ?;0BC @01>B=8:0 A >?@545;5==K< C@>2=5< ?>43>B>2:8 <>6=> ?@54AB028BL :0: A>AB>OICN 87 42CE >A=>2=KE G0AB59. 5@20O G0ABL  MB> B>, GB> >= ?>;CG0; 1K, 8<5O 107>2K9 C@>25=L >1@07>20=8O. B>@0O  MB> 4>E>4 =0 >1@07>20B5;L=K5 8=25AB8F88. F5=:0 MDD5:B82=>AB8 F5=:0 MDD5:B82=>AB8 8=25AB8F89 2 >1@07>20=85 ?@>872>48BAO =0 >A=>25 A@02=5=8O AB>8<>AB8 8=25AB8F89 A 4>E>4><, :>B>@K9 >=8 ?@8=>AOB. @8 MB>< 8A?>;L7C5BAO 0=0;87 "8745@6:8-2K3>4K", A@02=820NBAO 70B@0BK 8 2K3>4K >B >1@07>20=8O, ?@82545==K5 : >4=><C <><5=BC 2@5<5=8. @8 >F5=:5 ?>=5A5==KE 8745@65: =0 >1@07>20=85 CG8BK20NBAO =5 B>;L:> ?@O<K5 @0AE>4K, => B0: =07K205<K5 "?>B5@O==K5 70@01>B:8" (earnings foregone), B> 5ABL 70@01>B:8, :>B>@K5 B5@ONBAO CG0I8<8AO 87-70 B>3>, GB> >=8 =5 @01>B0NB, A2>53> @>40 AB>8<>ABL C?CI5==KE 2>7<>6=>AB59 (opportunity cost). @8<5=8B5;L=> : >1CG5=8N AB>8<>ABLN C?CI5==KE 2>7<>6=>AB59 1C45B 4>E>4, :>B>@K9 CB@0G8205BAO 2 @57C;LB0B5 ?@8=OB8O @5H5=8O > ?@>4>;65=88 CG51K. >B5@O==K5 70@01>B:8 A>AB02;ONB, ?> @0AG5B0<, >:>;> ?>;>28=K AC<<0@=KE 8745@65: >1CG5=8O.  !(, ?> =5:>B>@K< >F5=:0<, 4>;O 8E :>;51;5BAO 2 ?@545;0E 50-60% >B >1I59 AB>8<>AB8 2KAH53> 8 A@54=53> >1@07>20=8O. 081>;55 B>G=>9 <5@>9 M:>=><8G5A:>9 F5==>AB8 >1@07>20=8O O2;O5BAO G8AB0O ?@82545==0O AB>8<>ABL (net present value, NPV).  MB>< A;CG05 M:>=><8G5A:0O F5==>ABL >1@07>20=8O 1C45B >?@545;OBLAO :0: @07=>ABL <564C ?@82545==K< 4>?>;=8B5;L=K< 70@01>B:>< >B >1@07>20=8O 8 ?@82545==K<8 70B@0B0<8 =0 >1@07>20=85. @8 ?>?KB:5 ?@0:B8G5A:>3> 8AG8A;5=8O NPV F5==>AB8 >1@07>20=8O A;>6=>AB8 2>7=8:0NB A >?@545;5=85< :>MDD8F85=B0 48A:>=B8@>20=8O. G5284=>, GB> 2 :0G5AB25 ?5@2>9 4>?CAB8<>9 25;8G8=K <>65B 1KBL ?@8=OB0 >4=0 87 107>2KE AB02>: 2 M:>=><8:5, =0?@8<5@ AB02:0 4>E>4=>AB8 ?> 3>AC40@AB25==K< F5==K< 1C<030<. ><8<> @0AG5B>2 NPV, ?>?C;O@=>ABL 702>520;0 <5B>48:0 8AG8A;5=8O "2=CB@5==59 =>@<K MDD5:B82=>AB8" (internal rate of retern, IRR), B> 5ABL B0:>9 =>@<K ?@>F5=B0, ?@8 :>B>@>9 ?@82545==0O AB>8<>ABL 1C4CI8E 2K3>4 >1CG5=8O @02=0 ?@82545==>9 AB>8<>AB8 53> 8745@65:. -B>B ?>4E>4 ?>;=>ABLN A>>B25BAB2C5B @0AG5B0< 2=CB@5==59 =>@<K MDD5:B82=>AB8 ?@8 ?@8=OB88 8=25AB8F8>==KE @5H5=89. >;CG5==0O 2 @57C;LB0B5 @0AG5B>2 =>@<0 MDD5:B82=>AB8 A@02=8205BAO A 107>2K<8 =>@<0<8 4>E>4=>AB8 2 M:>=><8:5. A?>;L7>20=85 <5B>4>2 NPV 8 IRR ?>72>;O5B A>?>AB02;OBL >:C?05<>ABL 2;>65=89 2 D878G5A:89 8 "G5;>25G5A:89" :0?8B0;. @><5 B>3>, <>6=> A>?>AB02;OBL >B40GC >B >1@07>20=8O @07=>3> C@>2=O. >7=8:05B 2>?@>A, <>65B ;8 =>@<0 >B40G8 2 >1@07>20=88 8A?>;L7>20BLAO :0: >A=>20 4;O ?@0:B8G5A:8E @5:><5=40F89 ?> >F5=:5 8=25AB8F8>==KE ?@>5:B>2, 2 G0AB=>AB8 ?@8 2K1>@5 =0?@02;5=89 2;>65=89 2 284K >1@07>20=8O (2KAH55 8;8 >1I55 A@54=55). "5>@5B8:8 "G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0" @0AA<0B@820NB ABC45=B>2 :>;;54659 :0: D8@<K, 254CI85 A51O B0: 65, :0: ?@54?@8=8<0B5;8 ?@8 ?@8=OB88 @5H5=8O >1 8=25AB8@>20=8O A@54AB2. ">;L:> 8=25AB8@>20=85 745AL >ACI5AB2;O5BAO 2 A0<8E A51O. "1@07>20=85 1C45B ?@8>1@5B5=>, 5A;8 >68405<0O =>@<0 >B40G8 ?@52>AE>48B =>@<C ?@>F5=B0". "5>@8O "G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0", AB02O 2> 3;02C C3;0 A>>1@065=8O M:>=><8G5A:>9 2K3>4K, >AB02;O5B 70 @0<:0<8 @0AA<>B@5=8O 4@C385 D0:B>@K, 2;8ONI85 =0 @5H5=85 > ?@>4>;65=88 CG51K, ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=>9 >@85=B0F88. "0:, >=0 =5 CG8BK205B, GB> @K=>: B@C40 ?@54JO2;O5B >?@545;5==K5 B@51>20=8O : :0G5AB2C @01>G59 A8;K. 1@07>20=85 2 MB>< A;CG05 AB0=>28BAO =5 2K3>4=K< 8=25AB8@>20=85<, 0 =5>1E>48<K< CA;>285< CAB@>9AB20 =0 @01>BC.  GB> =0 A0<>< 45;5? <5AB5 A B5< 4;O @>AA89A:>3> >1@07>20=8O 2KH5?@82545==K5 ?>4E>4K <0;> ?@8<5=8<K. >-?5@2KE, 2 284C 15A?;0B=>AB8 2KAH53> >1@07>20=8O (?> :@09=59 <5@5 4;O 60% ABC45=B>2 3>AC40@AB25==KE 2C7>2). >-2B>@KE, 87-70 =5@0728B>AB8 @K=:0 B@C40. ;O =0A 1>;55 8=B5@5A=K<8 ?@54AB02;ONBAO 4@C385 2>77@5=8O =0 >1@07>20=85, 2 G0AB=>AB8, B>, :0: @0AA<0B@8205B 8=25AB8F88 2 >1@07>20=85 "B5>@8O D8;LB@0".  "B5>@88 D8;LB@0" >1@07>20=85 B@0:BC5BAO :0: A@54AB2> >B1>@0, CAB@>9AB2>, A>@B8@CNI55 CG0I8EAO ?> ?@>872>4AB25==K< :0G5AB20<. 5 >B@8F0O ?>78B82=>9 ?@8G8==>-A;54AB25==>9 A2O78 <564C C@>2=5< >1@07>20=8O >B45;L=>3> @01>B=8:0 8 53> 70@01>B:0<8, "B5>@8O D8;LB@0" 8=0G5 405B MB><C >1JOA=5=85. 0 ?5@2K9 ?;0= 2K428305BAO =5 ?@>872>48B5;L=K9 E0@0:B5@ >1@07>20=8O (1>;LH5 >1@07>20=8O  2KH5 ?@>872>48B5;L=>ABL, 2KH5 70@01>B:8, :0: 2 "B5>@88 G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0"), 0 8=D>@<0F8>==0O DC=:F8O. -B0 B5>@8O 8AE>48B 87 B>3>, GB> M:>=><8G5A:85 035=BK >1;040NB 2 2KAH59 AB5?5=8 =5A>25@H5==>9 8=D>@<0F859 4;O ?@8=OB8O ?@028;L=>3> (>?B8<0;L=>3>) @5H5=8O. A>15==> MB> E0@0:B5@=> 4;O ?>:C?0B5;O (=0=8<0B5;O) CA;C3 @01>G53> (A;C60I53>). 0=8<0O @01>G53>, ?@54?@8=8<0B5;L =8G53> =5 7=05B > 53> ?@>872>48B5;L=>AB8 8 A?>A>1=>ABOE. %0@0:B5@8AB8:8 =0=8<05<KE (?>;, 2>7@0AB, @0A0, C@>25=L >1@07>20=8O) A;C60B ;8HL A83=0;0<8 4;O =0=8<0B5;O. 1@07>20=85 2 40==>< A;CG05 A;C68B A83=0;>< 4;O ?@54?@8=8<0B5;O > :0G5AB25 =0=8<05<>9 @01>G59 A8;K. BAN40 4@C3>5 =0720=85 "B5>@88 D8;LB@0"  "B5>@8O A83=0;0" (signal). !?@0254;82> ?@54?>;0305BAO, GB> ;N48, ?>;CG82H85 1>;55 2KA>:89 C@>25=L >1@07>20=8O 8 ?> G8A;C ;5B, 8 ?> C@>2=N CG51=>3> 702545=8O, :>B>@>5 >=8 >:>=G8;8, ?@>H;8 1>;LH5 "AB5?5=59 D8;LB@0F88" 8 1>;55 CA?5H=> A?@02OBAO A ?>AB02;5==K<8 7040G0<8. @8 MB>< =0=8<0B5;N 01A>;NB=> =5 206=>, 1;03>40@O G5<C @01>B=8: 4>AB83 >?@545;5==>3> C@>2=O (B> ;8 53> E>@>H> CG8;8, B> ;8 53> A>1AB25==K5 A?>A>1=>AB8 2KH5). !>3;0A=> 40==>9 B5>@88, >1I5AB2> <>65B ?@54;>68BL "E>@>HCN" (?@5AB86=CN, 2KA>:>>?;0G8205<CN, B2>@G5A:CN) 8;8 "?;>ECN" @01>BC (=87:>>?;0G8205<CN, @CB8==CN 8 B.?.).  >1@07>20=85, =8G53> =5 ?@8102;OO : 87=0G0;L=K< :0G5AB20< @01>B=8:>2, B>;L:> 405B A83=0; @K=:C B@C40 4;O >B1>@0 :0=4840B>2 =0 BC 8;8 8=CN @01>BC. @>1;5<0 MDD5:B82=>AB8 >1@07>20=8O @0AA<0B@8205BAO B5?5@L ?>-4@C3><C: 2 7028A8<>AB8 >B B>3>, =0A:>;L:> CA?5H=> >1@07>20=85 A?@028;>AL A> A2>59 "@0A?@545;8B5;L=>9 DC=:F859". A;8 >1@07>20=85 O2;O5BAO ;8HL A@54AB2>< >B1>@0, B> 53> =5?@5@K2=K9 @>AB <>65B ?@8>1@5B0BL =5@0F8>=0;L=K9, A M:>=><8G5A:>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O, 871KB>G=K9 E0@0:B5@. ;O MDD5:B82=>AB8 8<5NB 7=0G5=85 =5 01A>;NB=K5 @07<5@K "A83=0;0", 0 @07;8G8O <564C 1>;55 8;8 <5=55 ?@>4C:B82=> @01>B0NI8<8. >MB><C :>340 G5;>25:, 8<5NI89 >?@545;5==K9 C@>25=L A?>A>1=>AB59, @5H05B ?>2KA8BL A2>5 >1@07>20=85 8 ?@5B5=4>20BL =0 1>;55 2KA>:85 70@01>B:8, B> 65 A0<>5 2K=C645=K 45;0BL 8 4@C385 (GB>1K =5 ?5@5<5AB8BLAO 2=87), B> 5ABL 2A5 2ABC?0NB 2 A2>5>1@07=CN 3>=:C 70 >1@07>20=85<. "0:>5 O2;5=85 ?>;CG8;> =0720=85 ">1@07>20B5;L=>9 A?8@0;8". BAN40 G5< A8;L=55 ?0405B M:>=><8G5A:0O F5==>ABL >1@07>20=8O, B5< H8@5 157@01>B8F0 A@548 E>@>H> >1CG5==>9 @01>G59 A8;K.  MB><C O2;5=8N ?@8<K:05B 8 4@C3>5, B0: =07K205<>5 "?>:07=>5 ?>B@51;5=85" (conspicuous consumption), B> 5ABL A?@>A =0 >1@07>20=85 ?@54JO2;O5BAO ?>B><C, GB> >=> O2;O5BAO 0B@81CB>< A>F80;L=>3> AB0BCA0, ?@87=0:>< ?@8=04;56=>AB8 : >?@545;5==>9 >1I5AB25==>9 85@0@E88. ! B>G:8 7@5=8O <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 F5;5A>>1@07=>AB8 (2=5H=89 MDD5:B >1@07>20=8O) B0:>5 ?>2545=85 2545B : @071070@820=8N @5AC@A>2. @0:B8:0 8A?>;L7>20=8O >1@07>20=8O 2 :0G5AB25 :@8B5@8O ?@8 =09<5 =0 @01>BC ?>;CG8;0 H8@>:>5 @0A?@>AB@0=5=85 2 !(. 9 1K;> 4065 40=> A?5F80;L=>5 =0720=85 ":@545=F80;87<" (credential  0BB5AB0B, C4>AB>25@5=85).  1971 3>4C 5@E>2=K9 AC4 !( 2K=5A @5H5=85, 70?@5I0NI55 8A?>;L7>20BL 2 :0G5AB25 A@54AB2 >B1>@0 ;N1K5 ?@87=0:8 8 A?>A>1K, 5A;8 >=8 =5 O2;ONBAO ?>:070B5;5< ?@83>4=>AB8 G5;>25:0 8<5==> 4;O 40==>3> <5AB0 @01>BK. -B>B 2K2>4 ?>4B25@6405BAO B5<, GB> @>AB >1@07>20=8O @01>G59 A8;K A 1950 ?> 1960 3. 2 !( =0 85% ?@>8AE>48; 70 AG5B @>AB0 >1@07>20=8O 2=CB@8 ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=KE 3@C?? 8 =0 15%  70 AG5B ?5@5AB@>9:8 ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=>9 AB@C:BC@K. 4=0:>, :0: 8 B5>@8O "G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0", "B5>@8O D8;LB@0" B0:65 =5 >B25G05B =0 2A5 2>?@>AK, A2O70==K5 A> 7=0G8<>ABLN >1@07>20=8O :0: 4;O 8=48284CC<0, B0: 8 4;O >1I5AB20 2 F5;><. AA;54>20B5;8 548=K 2 B><, GB> 2 >B;8G85 >B "B5>@88 G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0" "B5>@8O D8;LB@0" <5=55 @07@01>B0=0 8 <5=55 AB@>9=0. =0 A>A@54>B>G8205B A2>5 2=8<0=85 =0 AB>@>=5 A?@>A0, B>340 :0: B5>@8O G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0 @0AA<0B@8205B A> AB>@>=K ?@54;>65=8O 8 @K=:0 B@C40. <5AB5 A B5< >=8 4>?>;=ONB 4@C3 4@C30 8 =5 ?>72>;ONB 01A>;NB878@>20BL :0:>9-;81> 87 ?>4E>4>2. A;8 ?>A<>B@5BL =0 @>AA89A:89 @K=>: B@C40, B> A>7405BAO 2?5G0B;5=85, GB> 53> 0=0;87 1>;55 ?;>4>B2>@=> 25AB8 8<5==> A> AB>@>=K A?@>A0, B> 5ABL @C:>2>4AB2COAL "B5>@859 D8;LB@0", 0 =5 A> AB>@>=K ?@54;>65=8O ("B5>@8O G5;>25G5A:>3> :0?8B0;0"). !:>@55 2A53>, 4;O =5CAB>O2H53>AO @>AA89A:>3> @K=:0 B@C40 2065= =5 >?@545;5==K9 C@>25=L >1@07>20=8O, 0 =5:85 7=0:>2K5 <><5=BK, A2>5>1@07=K9 ":@545=F80;87<", :>340 ":>@>G:0" A0<0 ?> A515 O2;O5BAO CA;>285<.  4;O ?@0:B8G5A:>9 @01>BK 7=0=8O, ?>;CG5==K5 2 2C75, <=>3> =5 AB>OB.  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"01;8F0 2 @>4>;68B5;L=>ABL 687=8 =0A5;5=8O 2 7028A8<>AB8 >B C@>2=O >1@07>20=8O 2 @0A=>40@A:>< :@05 1990 - 1991 3. 0B53>@8O ;8F@>4>;68B5;L=>ABL 687=8, ;5B<C6G8=K65=I8=K8F0 A 2KAH8< 8 =570:>=G5=- =K< 2KAH8< >1@07>20=85< 65,6 68,08F0 A> A@54=8< A?5F80;L=K< >1@07>20=85< 64,2 67,48F0 A> A@54=8< >1I8< >1@07>20=85< 62,5 66,38F0 A =5?>;=K< A@54=8< >1@07>20=85< 61,1 65,88F0 A =0G0;L=K< >1@07>20=85< 8 157 >1@07>20=8O 58,9 61,4"0:, C@02=5=85 7028A8<>AB8 A@54=59 ?@>4>;68B5;L=>AB8 687=8 <C6G8= 2 @0A=>40@A:>< :@05 (Y) >B C@>2=O 8E >1@07>20=8O (%) 8<55B 284: Y = 56,68 + 0,54X . >MDD8F85=B :>@@5;OF88 @025= 0.97. 7 ?@82545==>3> C@02=5=8O, 284=>, GB> <C6G8=K, 8<5NI85 1>;55 2KA>:89 C@>25=L >1@07>20=8O, 2 A@54=5< 682CB 4>;LH5. -B> A2O70=> A B5<, GB> ;8F0 A ;CGH59 >1@07>20B5;L=>9 ?>43>B>2:>9 8<5NB 1>;LH5 2>7<>6=>AB59 MDD5:B82=> 8A?>;L7>20BL A2>9 ":0?8B0;0 74>@>2LO - 254CB 1>;55 74>@>2K9 >1@07 687=8, :0: ?@028;>, 8718@0NB ?@>D5AA88 =5 A2O70==K5 A 2@54=K<8 8 >?0A=K<8 CA;>28O<8 B@C40, @07C<=55 ?>;L7CNBAO <548F8=A:8<8 CA;C30<8. 06=K< ?>:070B5;5< A>F80;L=>9 MDD5:B82=>AB8 >1@07>20=8O O2;O5BAO C@>25=L 157@01>B8FK A@548 @07;8G=KE ?> >1@07>20=8N 3@C?? =0A5;5=8O. @>2545==K9 @0AG5B, =0 >A=>20=88 8<5NI8EAO 40==KE >1 C@>2=5 157@01>B8FK A@548 <C6G8= B@C4>A?>A>1=>3> 2>7@0AB0 2 !( (B01;.3), A2845B5;LAB2C5B > A8;L=>9 :>@@5;OF8>==>9 A2O78 <564C >1@07>20=85< 8 C@>2=5< 157@01>B8FK. >MDD8F85=B :>@@5;OF88 @025= 0,96. 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"01;8F0 4 0A?@545;5=85 157@01>B=KE ?> C@>2=N >1@07>20=8O 2 @0A=>40@A:>< :@05, % 1@07>20=85>4K1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 KAH55 ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=>533,025,318,515,214,215,7!@54=55 ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=>535,938,938,032,129,430,6!@54=55 >1I55 23,627,433,040,937,335,05?>;=>5 A@54=557,48,410,411,811,210,5 7 ?@82545==KE 40==KE 284=>, GB> ?@>F5=B ;8F A 2KAH8< ?@>D5AA8>=0;L=K< >1@07>20=85< 2 >1I5< :>;8G5AB25 157@01>B=KE 70 ?5@8>4 A 1992 ?> 1997 A>:@0B8;AO 1>;55 G5< 2 2 @070, 0 ?@>F5=B 157@01>B=KE A> A@54=8< >1I8< 8 =5?>;=K< A@54=8< >1@07>20=85< =0>1>@>B C25;8G8205BAO. -B8 87<5=5=8O A2845B5;LAB2CNB > 2>7@0AB0NI59 @>;8 >1@07>20=8O =0 @>AA89A:>< @K=:5 B@C40 8 53> @0728B88 2 A>>B25BAB288 A >1I5<8@>2K<8 B5=45=F8O<8.  A>60;5=8N, 2 A8BC0F88, A;>682H59AO =K=5 2 >AA88, 2KA>:89 C@>25=L >1@07>20=8O ?5@5AB05B 1KBL D0:B>@>< M:>=><8G5A:>3> ?@5CA?520=8O. 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eizsaecker E., van, Lovins A.B., Lovins L.H. Factor Four. Doubling Wealth  Halving Resource Use. L., Earthscan Publications Ltd., 1997. Copyright  Weizsaecker E., von, Lovins . ., Lovins L.H. 1997. "5:AB 2>A?@>872>48BAO A A>3;0A8O -. D>= 09F75::5@0. "><0A !BN0@B. =B5;;5:BC0;L=K9 :0?8B0;. >2K9 8AB>G=8: 1>30BAB20 >@30=870F89 "><0A !BN0@B 0<5@8:0=A:89 M:>=><8AB 8 ?C1;8F8AB, H8@>:> 8725AB=K9 A2>8<8 <=>3>G8A;5==K<8 AB0BLO<8 ?> ?@>1;5<0< <8@>2>9 M:>=><8:8, B5>@88 C?@02;5=8O 8 @0728B8O A>2@5<5==KE D>@< CA;C3 2 D8=0=A>2>< A5:B>@5.  =0AB>OI55 2@5<O >= 70=8<05B ?>AB G;5=0 @540:F8>==>3> A>25B0 6C@=0;0 Fortune 8 >B<5G5= @O4>< <564C=0@>4=KE ?@5<89 2 >1;0AB8 6C@=0;8AB8:8. =830 =B5;;5:BC0;L=K9 :0?8B0; (1997) 8<55B >A>1>5 7=0G5=85 2 @O4C @01>B, 2KH54H8E 2 1996 1997 3>40E ?>4 0=0;>38G=K< =0720=85< 2 !( 8 =3;88. A=>2=>9 70A;C3>9 02B>@0 O2;O5BAO, =0 =0H 273;O4, B>, GB> 5<C C40;>AL, A>E@0=82 2A5 ?@58<CI5AB20 3;C1>:>3> 0=0;870, 2 ?>?C;O@=>9 D>@<5 87;>68BL 206=59H85 ?@>1;5<K, AB>OI85 A53>4=O ?5@54 M:>=><8:>9, 2 :>B>@>9 7=0=8O 8 8=D>@<0F8O AB0=>2OBAO 3;02=K<8 ?@>872>4AB25==K<8 @5AC@A0<8. 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""#,+ " + !"' "!"  &* A;8 2K E>B8B5 ?>=OBL, G5< 70=8<05BAO B> 8;8 8=>5 ?@54?@8OB85, ?@>A;548B5 70 42865=85< 53> A@54AB2. ><?0=88 ?@>872>4OB 420 >A=>2=KE 2840 70B@0B. 5@2K9  :0?8B0;>2;>65=8O. 5=L38 ?><5I0NBAO 2 =542868<>ABL, >1>@C4>20=85 8 ?@>G85 4>;3>A@>G=K5 0:B82K, >B40G0 >B :>B>@KE  2 2845 ?@81K;8 =0 8=25AB8@>20==K9 :0?8B0;  ?>ABC?05B ;8HL A B5G5=85< 2@5<5=8. ><8<> 2;>65=89 2 >1>@C4>20=85, >@30=870F88 ?@>872>4OB 4>;3>A@>G=K5 8=25AB8F88 2 =0CG=K5 8AA;54>20=8O, >?KB=>-:>=AB@C:B>@A:85 @07@01>B:8 8 2 ?>43>B>2:C :04@>2, GB> B>65 O2;O5BAO @07=>284=>ABLN :0?8B0;>2;>65=89, E>BO ?> ?@028;0< 1CE30;B5@A:>3> CG5B0 >=8 >1KG=> ?@>E>4OB ?> AB0BL5 @0AE>4>2. 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B5< =5 <5=55 A8;0 7=0=89 2>7@0AB05B, :>340 >=8 >A2>1>640NBAO >B MB>9 <0B5@80;L=>9 >1>;>G:8. N3> ?8A0;:  2845 ?5G0B=>3> A;>20 <KA;L AB0;0 4>;3>25G=>9, :0: =8:>340: >=0 :@K;0B0, =5C;>28<0, =58AB@518<0. =0 A;8205BAO A 2>74CE><. > 2@5<O 7>4G5AB20 <KA;L ?@52@0I0;0AL 2 :0<5==CN 3@><04C 8 2;0AB=> 702;04520;0 >?@545;5==K< 25:>< 8 >?@545;5==K< ?@>AB@0=AB2><. K=5 65 >=0 ?@52@0I05BAO 2 AB0N ?B8F, @07;5B0NI8EAO =0 2A5 G5BK@5 AB>@>=K, 8 70=8<05B 2A5 B>G:8 2> 2@5<5=8 8 2 ?@>AB@0=AB25... 07@CH8BL <>6=> ;N1CN <0AAC, => :0: 8A:>@5=8BL B>, GB> 25745ACI5?11 &8D@>20O @52>;NF8O, >A2>1>482H0O 7=0=8O >B >AB0B:>2 <0B5@80;L=>9 >1>;>G:8, A45;0;0 8E 5I5 1>;55 4>ABC?=K<8... 8 =5A>:@CH8<K<8. ;O B>3>, GB>1K ?@5CA?5BL 2 =5<0B5@80;L=>9 M:>=><8:5, >@30=870F8O< 8 :064><C G5;>25:C A;54C5B >A2>8BL ?@85<K @01>BK, :>B>@K5 >B;8G0NBAO >B 8E ?@56=8E =02K:>2 2 B0:>9 65 <5@5, 2 :0:>9 ?B8FK >B;8G0NBAO >B :0<=O.  * - Weizsaecker E., van, Lovins A.B., Lovins L.H. Factor Four. Doubling Wealth  Halving Resource Use. L., Earthscan Publications Ltd., 1997. Copyright  Weizsaecker E., von, Lovins . ., Lovins L.H. 1997. "5:AB 2>A?@>872>48BAO A A>3;0A8O -. D>= 09F75::5@0. 1 - !<.: Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L, Randers J. Behrens III, W.W. The Limits to Growth. N.Y., 1972. 2 - K =07K205< B0: MBC <>45;L ?>B><C, GB> ACI5AB2>20;8 B0:65 <>45;8 World 1 8 World 2. World 1 1K;0 ?5@2>=0G0;L=>9 25@A859, @07@01>B0==>9 ?@>D5AA>@>< 0AA0GCA5BAA:>3> B5E=>;>38G5A:>3> 8=AB8BCB0 6.$>@5AB5@>< 2 @0<:0E ?@>2>482H53>AO 8<A:8< :;C1>< 8AA;54>20=8O 2708<>7028A8<>AB8 <564C 3;>10;L=K<8 B5=45=F8O<8 8 3;>10;L=K<8 ?@>1;5<0<8. World 2 O2;O5BAO >:>=G0B5;L=>9 4>:C<5=B8@>20==>9 <>45;LN, ?@54AB02;5==>9 ?@>D5AA>@>< 6.$>@5AB5@>< 2 :=835: Forester J. World Dynamics. N.Y., 1971. >45;L World 3 1K;0 A>740=0 =0 1075 World 2, 2 ?5@2CN >G5@54L :0: A;54AB285 87<5=5=8O 55 AB@C:BC@K 8 @0AH8@5=8O :>;8G5AB25==>9 107K 40==KE. K 4>;6=K >B<5B8BL, GB> ?@>D5AA>@ 6.$>@5AB5@ O2;O5BAO 157CA;>2=K< 24>E=>28B5;5< 40==>9 <>45;8 8 02B>@>< 8A?>;L7C5<KE 2 =59 <5B>4>2. 3 - !<.: Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L., Renders J. Behrens III, W.W. The Limits to Growth. P. 24. 4 - Vargish Th. Why the Person Sitting Next to You Hates Limits to Growth // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 16. 1980. P. 187-188. 5 - !<.: Pipes D. In the Path of God: Islam and Political Power. N.Y., 1983. P. 102-103, 169-173. 6 - [2B>@ ?@82>48B A;>20 2870=B89A:>9 ?@8=F5AAK ==K ><=8=]. &8B8@C5BAO ?> :=.: Armstrong . Holy War: The Crusades and Their Impact on Today's World. N.Y., 1991. P. 3-4, 8 Toynbee A. Study of History. Vol. VIII. L, 1954. P. 390. 7 - Buzan B.G. New Patterns of Global Security in the Twenty-First Century // International Affairs. No 67. July 1991. P. 448-449. * - Weizsaecker E., van, Lovins A.B., Lovins L.H. Factor Four. Doubling Wealth  Halving Resource Use. L., Earthscan Publications Ltd., 1997. Copyright  Weizsaecker E., von, Lovins . ., Lovins L.H. 1997. "5:AB 2>A?@>872>48BAO A A>3;0A8O -. D>= 09F75::5@0. 8 - Lewis . The Roots of Muslim Rage: Why So Many Muslims Deeply Resent the West and Why Their Bitterness Will Not Be Easily Mollified // Atlantic Monthly. No 266. September 1990. P. 60. 9 - Mohamed Sid-Ahmed. Cybernetic Colonialism and the Moral Search // New Perspectives Quarterly. No. 11. Spring 1994. P. 19; [<=5=85 8=489A:>3> ?>;8B8G5A:>3> 45OB5;O .6.:10@0 F8B8@C5BAO no) Time. 1992. June 15. . 24; [?>78F8O BC=8AA:>3> ?@02>2540145;L20E010 Q;L20;O ?@54AB02;5=0 2] Time. 1992. June 15. . 26. 10 - McNeil W.H. Epilogue: Fundamentalism and the World of 1990's; Marty M.E., Scott Appleby R. (Eds.) Fundamentalisms and Society; Reclaiming the Sciences, the Family, and Education. Chicago, 1992. P. 569. 11 - Mernissi F. Islam and Democracy: Fear of the Modem World. Reading (MA), 1992. 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James Brian Quinn, Philip Anderson, and Sydney Finkelstein. Managing Professional Intellect: Making the Most of the Best//Harvard Business Review. 1996. March-April.P.71-80. 2. 5>=BL52 .. http://www.intelpro.ru/VAL_analit.htm. 3. . >>A. =B5;;5:BC0;L=K9 :0?8B0;. K <>65B5 C?@02;OBL B5<, GB> <>65B5 87<5@8BL. 0@:5B8=3. 1998. !3. 4. Hiroyuki Itami with Thomas W. Roehl. Mobilizing Invisible Assets. England, 1991. 5. Edvinsson L., Malone M.S. Intellectual Capital. Realizing Your Company s True Value by Finding Its Hidden Brainpower. New York. Harper Business. 1997. 6. Paul Strassmann. http://www.strassmann.com/index.shtml 7. Michael D. McMaster. The Intelligence Advantage: Organizing for Complexity.USA.1996. 8. >7K@52 .. F5=:0 8=B5;;5:BC0;L=>9 A>1AB25==>AB8. . -:A?5@B=>5 1N@>-. 1997.!.23. 9. 0;409F52 !.., 02;8= .., 8=45;8 .-. 5<0B5@80;L=K5 0:B82K 2 =0C:5: >F5=:0 8 8A?>;L7>20=85. 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