ࡱ> ,.)*+M qbjbj==.WWl!!!!D"q2""""""""oooooooJr jtzo5"""""o6""p666" ""o6"o66.; j'oo"" lZf!F/3l6oo,p0qilt5too6@>3@0<<0 48AF8?;8=K 5:F88 ?> <0:@>M:>=><8:5 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 >OA=8B5;L=0O 70?8A:0 >287=0 8 8==>20F8>==>ABL :C@A0  ?@54;0305<>< :C@A5 5:F88 ?> <0:@>M:>=><8:5 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 2?5@2K5 ?@54?@8=OB0 ?>?KB:0 0=0;870 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 =0 >A=>25 AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>3> ?>4E>40.  >B;8G85 >B =5>:;0AA8G5A:>3> (O. Blanchard, 1997), M2>;NF8>=8ABA:>3> (J. Stiglitz, 1994), 8=AB8BCF8>=0;8ABA:>3> (M.Dewatripont, G. Roland, 1995) 8 A8AB5<=>3> (J. Kornai, 1998) ?>4E>4>2, AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:0O <5B>4>;>38O ?@54CA<0B@8205B 8AA;54>20=85 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 =0 >A=>25 0=0;870 DC=:F8>=0;L=>-AB@C:BC@=KE 2708<>A2O759 206=59H8E <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E A5:B>@>2 8 ?>4A8AB5<. @8 MB>< ?5@5E>4=0O M:>=><8:0 @0AA<0B@8205BAO :0: A8AB5<0 A B@0=AD>@<8@CNI59AO AB@C:BC@>9 M:>=><8G5A:8E 8=AB8BCB>2.  A8;C ?@8=F8?80;L=>9 AB@C:BC@=>9 =5>4=>@>4=>AB8, ?@8ACI59 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5, ?>?KB:8 ?@8<5=5=8O AB0=40@B=KE <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E B5>@89 : 55 8AA;54>20=8N, :0: ?@028;>, >:07K20NBAO =5C40G=K<8. 5>1E>48< 0=0;87 48=0<8:8 206=59H8E AB@C:BC@=KE A5:B>@>2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 2 8E A8AB5<=KE 2708<>A2O7OE. <5==> MB>B ?>4E>4 ?>;>65= 2 >A=>2C ?@54;0305<>3> :C@A0 5:F88 ?> <0:@> -M:>=><8:5 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40.  M;5<5=B0< =>287=K :C@A0 <>6=> >B=5AB8 H8@>:>5 8A?>;L7>20=85 0??0@0B0 0=0;8B8G5A:8E 8 M:>=><5B@8G5A:8E <>45;59 4;O 8AA;54>20=8O ?@>1;5< AB@C:BC@=KE B@0=AD>@<0F89 2 @50;L=>< 8 D8=0=A>2>< A5:B>@5, A>F80;L=>9 8 1N465B=>9 AD5@5. &5;520O 3@C??0 C@A >@85=B8@>20= =0 ABC45=B>2 A?5F80;L=>AB59 -:>=><8G5A:0O B5>@8O, >AC40@AB25==K5 8 <C=8F8?0;L=K5 D8=0=AK, 0B5<0B8G5A:85 <5B>4K 2 M:>=><8:5 2 :C@A0 <038AB@0BC@K #-(-, ?@>A;CH02H8E B5>@5B8G5A:85 48AF8?;8=K 0:@>-1,2, 8:@>-1,2 2 10:0;02@80B5 KAH59 H:>;K M:>=><8:8, ?@8:;04=K5 48AF8?;8=K -:>=><8:0 >AA88 (C@>25=L 10:0;02@80B0), 0 B0:65 107>2K5 :C@AK ?> M:>=><8G5A:>9 AB0B8AB8:5 8 M:>=><5B@8:5 (2 ?@>3@0<<5 10:0;02@80B0 #-(-). 5>1E>48<>, GB>1K 40==><C :C@AC ?@54H5AB2>20; <038AB5@A:89 :C@A M:>=><5B@8:8, 65;0B5;L=> ?0@0;;5;L=>5 >A2>5=85 ABC45=B0<8 <038AB5@A:8E :C@A>2 -:>=><8:0 >AA88 8 @8:;04=0O <0:@>M:>=><8:0. 1>A=>20=85 F5;5A>>1@07=>AB8 ?>43>B>2:8 :C@A0  =0AB>OI55 2@5<O 2 >AA88 >BACBAB2CNB 1078A=K5 CG51=K5 <0B5@80;K ?> M:>=><8:5 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40. 5A:>;L:> CG51=KE ?>A>189 ?> M:>=><8:5 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40, ?>O282H8EAO 2 >AA88 2 1992-1998 33., =5 <>3CB 1KBL ?>;>65=K 2 >A=>2C @07@010BK205<>3> :C@A0 4;O <038AB@0BC@K #-(-.  G0AB=>AB8, :C@A ;5:F89 ..C730;8=0 5@5E>4=0O M:>=><8:0, . 1994, CG51=8: -:>=><8:0 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40, ?>4 @54. .. C730;8=0, . 1995, CG51=>5 ?>A>185 "5>@8O ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 ?>4 @54. ..@0A=8:>2>9, . 1998, ?>AB@>5=K ?> >?8A0B5;L=><C ?@8=F8?C 8 =5 A>45@60B @0725@=CB>3> D>@<0;L=>3> 0=0;870 70:>=><5@=>AB59 B@0=78B82=KE M:>=><8:, GB> >@85=B8@C5B MB8 ?>A>18O A:>@55 =0 ABC45=B>2 A>F8>;>38G5A:8E 8 N@848G5A:8E A?5F80;L=>AB59, 0 B0:65 =0 ABC45=B>2 -M:>=><8AB>2 =0G0;L=KE :C@A>2. ! 4@C3>9 AB>@>=K, 2 8725AB=>< CG51=8:5 . ;0=H0@0 The Economics of Postcommunist Transition, Oxford, 1997, >?KB @>AA89A:8E M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@< =5 @0AA<0B@8205BAO 2>>1I5, 0 ;8HL :>=AB0B8@C5BAO :0: =5>1JOA=8<0O 0=><0;8O.  MB>9 A2O78 ?@54AB02;O5BAO F5;5A>>1@07=>9 @07@01>B:0 CG51=>3> :C@A0 ?> <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8< 0A?5:B0< M:>=><8:8 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 4;O <038AB@0BC@K #-(-, ?>AB@>5==>3> =0 ?@8=F8?0E 70?04=>9 M:>=><8G5A:>9 H:>;K, => CG8BK20NI53> >?KB 8 @50;88 @>AA89A:8E @5D>@<. C@A 5:F88 ?> <0:@>M:>=><8:5 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40, ?@54=07=0G5==K9 4;O ABC45=B>2 <038AB@0BC@K #-(-, ?@5A;54C5B F5;L ?@5>4>;5=8O A;>682H53>AO <5B>4>;>38G5A:>3> @07@K20 <564C ?@5?>4020=85< B5>@5B8G5A:8E M:>=><8G5A:8E 48AF8?;8= 2 #-(- (8:@>-1,2,3, 0:@>-1,2,3, 8 B.4.), >A=>20==K< =0 <>45;L=>< ?>4E>45 8 AB0=40@B0E 70?04=>9 M:>=><8G5A:>9 <5B>4>;>388, 8 AB8;5< ?@5?>4020=8O ?@8:;04=KE <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E 48AF8?;8= 2 >AA88 (-:>=><8:0 >AA88, @8:;04=0O <0:@>M:>=><8:0), >A=>20==K< =0 >?8A0B5;L=><, M<?8@8G5A:>< ?>4E>45. >MB><C 2 >A=>2C ?@54;0305<>3> :C@A0 ?>;>65= <>45;L=K9 ?>4E>4 : 8AA;54>20=8N B@0=78B82=KE M:>=><8:, 2:;NG0NI89 0=0;87 70:>=><5@=>AB59 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 8 >A>15==>AB59 M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 =0 <8:@>- 8 <0:@>-C@>2=5 A 0:F5=B>< =0 @>AA89A:>< >?KB5 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@< 1992-2000 33. &5;L :C@A0 &5;LN :C@A0 O2;O5BAO DC=40<5=B0;L=0O ?>43>B>2:0 ABC45=B>2 2 >1;0AB8 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>3> 0=0;870 A>2@5<5==KE ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8.  >A=>2C :C@A0 ?>;>65= <>45;L=K9 ?>4E>4 : 8AA;54>20=8N ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:, 2:;NG0NI89 0=0;87 70:>=><5@=>AB59 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 8 >A>15==>AB59 M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 =0 <8:@>- 8 <0:@>-C@>2=5 A 0:F5=B>< =0 @>AA89A:>< >?KB5 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@< 1992-2001 3>4>2. C@A ?>43>B02;8205B <038AB@>2 M:>=><8:8 : ?@>2545=8N 8AA;54>20B5;LA:>9 @01>BK 2 40==>9 >1;0AB8. 5B>4K  :C@A5 8A?>;L7CNBAO A;54CNI85 <5B>4K 8 D>@<K 70=OB89: 5:F88 !5<8=0@K, =0 :>B>@KE >1AC640NBAO >A=>2=K5 ?@>1;5<K 8 @5H0NBAO 7040G8 8AL<5==K5 4><0H=85 7040=8O 0?8A0=85 MAA5, @5D5@0B>2, 4>:;04>2 >=AC;LB0F8O ?@5?>4020B5;O !0<>AB>OB5;L=0O @01>B0 ABC45=B>2 B>3>20O >F5=:0 7=0=89 @54?>;0305BAO ?>2545=85 42CEG0A>2>3> ?8AL<5==>3> M:70<5=0, @57C;LB0BK :>B>@>3> A>AB02OB 60% 8B>3>2>9 >F5=:8. 01>B0 =0 A5<8=0@5 A>AB02;O5B 20%, MAA5  20% 8B>3>2>9 >F5=:8. @8=F8?K >F5=:8 @01>BK ABC45=B>2 0:A8<0;L=0O >F5=:0 8B>3>2>3> M:70<5=0  30 10;;>2. 0:A8<0;L=0O >F5=:0 MAA5  10 10;;>2. 0:A8<0;L=0O >F5=:0 @01>BK =0 A5<8=0@0E  10 10;;>2. A=>2=K<8 :@8B5@8O<8 ?@8 >F5=:5 @01>BK =0 A5<8=0@0E A;C60B ?>A5I5=85, 2K?>;=5=85 4><0H=8E 7040=89 8 <8:@>:>=B@>;L=KE. B>3>20O 5-10;L=0O >F5=:0 CG8BK205B 2A5 =01@0==K5 10;;K 8 2KAB02;O5BAO ?> A;54CNI59 H:0;5. =B5@20;: 0-25 10;;>2  =5C4>2;5B2>@8B5;L=> 26-35 10;;>2  C4>2;5B2>@8B5;L=> 36-45 10;;>2  E>@>H> 46-50 10;;>2  >B;8G=> !>45@60=85 :C@A0  >A=>2C :C@A0 ?>;>65= <>45;L=K9 ?>4E>4 : 8AA;54>20=8N ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:, 2:;NG0NI89 0=0;87 70:>=><5@=>AB59 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 8 >A>15==>AB59 M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 =0 <8:@>- 8 <0:@>-C@>2=5 A 0:F5=B>< =0 @>AA89A:>< >?KB5 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@< 1992-2000 3>4>2. "5<K @0745;>2 :C@A0: 2545=85. @54<5B ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. 5B>4>;>38G5A:85 ?@>1;5<K 8AA;54>20=8O ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. A=>2=K5 D0:BK 8 38?>B57K > <5E0=87<0E B@0=AD>@<0F88 @>1;5<K M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E >45;8 48=0<8:8 @50;L=>3> A5:B>@0 >45;8 M2>;NF88 :@548B=>-45=56=>9 A8AB5<K >AC40@AB2> 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5. K=>: B@C40 8 A>F80;L=0O AD5@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E "5=52>9 A5:B>@ 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E ==>B0F88 B5< :C@A0 5@20O B5<0 A>45@68B >1AC645=85 ?@54<5B0 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 2 42CE 2708<>A2O70==KE 0A?5:B0E: -<?8@8G5A:89 0A?5:B: >?KB M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@< 1980E-1990E 3>4>2 2 ?>ABA>F80;8AB8G5A:8E AB@0=0E &5=B@0;L=>9 8 >AB>G=>9 2@>?K. =0;878@CNBAO 3;02=K5 ?@8G8=K, F5;8 8 7040G8 ?5@5E>40 >B ?;0=0 : @K=:C. "5>@5B8G5A:89 0A?5:B: 0=0;878@CNBAO ?@>3@0<<K @5D>@<, ?@8=F8?K 0H8=3B>=A:>3> 8 ?>AB-0H8=3B>=A:>3> :>=A5=ACA0. 0AA<>B@5=0 :@8B8:0 >A=>2=KE ?>;>65=89 0H8=3B>=A:>3> :>=A5=ACA0 6.!B83;8F5<, /.>@=08, .>@B><. =0;878@CNBAO ?@8G8=K =5C40G ?5@2>=0G0;L=KE <>45;59 8 ?@>3=>7>2 48=0<8:8 M:>=><8G5A:8E ?@5>1@07>20=89. A=>2=0O 845O ?5@2>9 B5<K: 4;O ?>AB@>5=8O CA?5H=KE ?@>3=>7>2, <>45;59 8 ?@>3@0<< @5D>@< =5>1E>48< 0=0;87 8 CG5B 8=AB8BCF8>=0;L=KE 8 AB@C:BC@=KE D0:B>@>2 M:>=><8G5A:>9 B@0=AD>@<0F88. B>@0O B5<0 ?>A2OI5=0 0=0;87C <5B>4>;>38G5A:8E ?@>1;5< 8AA;54>20=8O ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. 0A:@K20NBAO >A=>2=K5 ?@8=F8?K M2>;NF8>=8ABA:>3> (6.!B83;8F), A8AB5<=>3> (/.>@=08), 8=AB8BCF8>=0;8ABA:>3> (.>@B) 8 AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>3> ?>4E>4>2 : 0=0;87C ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. @0B:>5 22545=85 2 8AB>@8N AB@C:BC@=>3> 0=0;870 M:>=><8G5A:8E A8AB5< 7025@H05BAO D>@<C;8@>2:>9 >A=>2=KE ?@8=F8?>2 M:>=><8G5A:>3> AB@C:BC@0;87<0 2 :>=B5:AB5 :;NG52KE ?@>1;5< M:>=><8G5A:>9 B@0=AD>@<0F88 : A>1>5 2=8<0=85 <>B820F8O< 8 <>45;O< ?>2545=8O M:>=><8G5A:8E AC1J5:B>2 2 CA;>28OE @5D>@< =0;87 206=59H8E DC=:F89 M:>=><8G5A:>9 A8AB5<K: <>45;8@>20=8O, @53C;8@>20=8O, 040?B0F88 8 4803=>AB8:8  8 A>F80;L=>-M:>=><8G5A:8E 8=AB8BCB>2, @50;87CNI8E MB8 DC=:F88 0AA<>B@5=85 >A=>2=KE AB@C:BC@=KE A53<5=B>2 B@0=AD>@<8@CNI59AO M:>=><8G5A:>9 A8AB5<K 2 8E DC=:F8>=0;L=KE 2708<>A2O7OE: =>2K9 G0AB=K9 187=5A, @5AB@C:BC@8@C5<K5 3>AC40@AB25==K5 ?@54?@8OB8O, 5AB5AB25==K5 <>=>?>;88, M:A?>@B=>->@85=B8@>20==K5 :><?0=88, D8=0=A>20O A8AB5<0, 1N465B=0O A8AB5<0, A>F80;L=0O AD5@0. =0;87 =>2>9 @>;8 3>AC40@AB20 2 ?@>2545=88 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@< 8 ?@8>@8B5B>2 4>;3>A@>G=>9 AB@C:BC@=>9 ?>;8B8:8. =0;87 M2>;NF88 :@548B=>-45=56=>9 A8AB5<K 2 CA;>28OE @5D>@<. @>1;5<K @5AB@C:BC@870F88 10=:>2A:>9 A8AB5<K !B@C:BC@=K9 0=0;87 @K=:0 B@C40, G0AB=KE A15@565=89 8 8=25AB8F89 0;55 @0AA<0B@820NBAO >A=>2=K5 AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:85 <>45;8 M:>=><8G5A:8E A8AB5<. =0;878@CNBAO >?@545;5=8O ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 :0: 4C0;L=>9 A8AB5<K (/.>@=08), =5@02=>25A=>9 18?>;O@=>9 <0:@>AB@C:BC@K.  B@5BL59 B5<5 405BAO H8@>:89 >17>@ 8 A@02=8B5;L=K9 0=0;87 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E D0:B>2 > ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E &5=B@0;L=>9 8 >AB>G=>9 2@>?K, >AA88 8 AB@0= !. 0AA<0B@8205BAO E0@0:B5@=K9 U->1@07=K9 ?0BB5@= 48=0<8:8 03@538@>20==>3> 2K?CA:0, ?@><KH;5==>3> ?@>872>4AB20, 70=OB>AB8 8 ?@>872>48B5;L=>AB8 B@C40 2 @07;8G=KE AB@0=0E A ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:>9. ;NG52>9 2>?@>A B5<K: :0: >1JOA=8BL U->1@07=CN 48=0<8:C >A=>2=KE <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E ?>:070B5;59? 5<>=AB@8@C5BAO =54>AB0B>G=>ABL =5>:;0AA8G5A:8E 8 =5>:59=A80=A:8E ?>4E>4>2 : 0=0;87C MB8E CAB>9G82KE M<?8@8G5A:8E 70:>=><5@=>AB59: M:>=><8G5A:89 A?04 2 1>;LH8=AB25 AB@0= A ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:>9 1K; 3>@074> 3;C165, G5< MB> ?@54A:07K20;>AL B5>@5B8:0<8 0H8=3B>=A:>3> :>=A5=ACA0 2 1990 3>4C. <5AB5 A B5<, 2 8B05 8 L5B=0<5 C40;>AL 871560BL =0G0;L=>3> B@0=AD>@<0F8>==>3> A?040. 0;55 0=0;878@CNBAO >A=>2=K5 38?>B57K > <5E0=87<0E M:>=><8G5A:>9 B@0=AD>@<0F88: @50;;>:0F8O @5AC@A>2, 457>@30=870F8O M:>=><8G5A:>9 A@54K, @5AB@C:BC@870F8O ?@54?@8OB89. 05BAO ?>4@>1=>5 87;>65=85 <>45;8 .;0=H0@0, >?8AK20NI59 ?@>F5AA @50;;>:0F88 @5AC@A>2 <564C AB0@K< 3>AC40@AB25==K< 8 =>2K< G0AB=K< A5:B>@>< M:>=><8:8. 0;55 @0AA<0B@8205BAO AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:0O <>45;L ?@>F5AA0 457>@30=870F88 M:>=><8G5A:>9 A@54K 8 =0 55 >A=>25 8=B5@?@5B8@C5BAO E0@0:B5@ 8 ?@8G8=K B@0=AD>@<0F8>==>3> A?040 2 =0G0;L=K9 ?5@8>4 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@<. >4G5@:8205BAO @>;L AB@C:BC@=KE D0:B>@>2 8 AB@C:BC@=KE @5D>@< 2 ?@5>4>;5=88 B@0=AD>@<0F8>==>3> A?040.  G5B25@B>9 B5<5 @0AA<0B@820NBAO >A=>2=K5 ?@>1;5<K M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. =>3>25:B>@=>ABL F5;59 8 7040G B@0=AD>@<0F8>==>9 ?>;8B8:8 45<>=AB@8@C5BAO =0 >A=>25 B@0=AD>@<0F8>==>9 :204@0BC@K: M:>=><8G5A:0O ;815@0;870F8O, D8=0=A>20O 8 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O AB018;870F8O, ?@820B870F8O 8 @5AB@C:BC@870F8O ?@54?@8OB89. A>1> ?>4G5@:8205BAO ?@8>@8B5B 8 7=0G8<>ABL 2K1>@0 <5B>4>2 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 8 AB@C:BC@=>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 CA?5E5 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@<. 0;55 ?>4@>1=> @0AA<0B@8205BAO <>45;L H>:>2>9 B5@0?88 5@30 8 !0:A0, ?>;>65==0O 2 >A=>2C M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@< 2 >;LH5. =0;87 <>45;8 5@30-!0:A0 7025@H05BAO 48A:CAA859 > ?@58<CI5AB20E 8 =54>AB0B:0E ?>;8B8:8 H>:>2>9 B5@0?88 2 A@02=5=88 A 3@04C0;L=K<8 @5D>@<0<8. #3;C1;5==K9 A@02=8B5;L=K9 0=0;87 H>:>2>9 B5@0?88 8 3@04C0;87<0 40;55 ?@>2>48BAO =0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=>9 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 <>45;8, 2 :>B>@>9 8AA;54CNBAO 2708<>A2O78 AB0@>3> A5:B>@0 @5AB@C:BC@8@C5<KE 3>AC40@AB25==KE ?@54?@8OB89 8 =>2>3> A5:B>@0 G0AB=KE :><?0=89 A CG5B>< D0:B>@>2 3>AC40@AB25==>9 AB@C:BC@=>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 AD5@5 ?@>872>4AB20.  ?OB>9 B5<5 @0AA<0B@820NBAO <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 <>45;8 48=0<8:8 @50;L=>3> A5:B>@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 7;>65=85 =0G8=05BAO A 0=0;870 >A=>2=KE ?@>1;5< @50;L=>3> A5:B>@0 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:: B@0=D>@<0F8>==K9 A?04, 8=25AB8F8>==K9 :@878A, AB@C:BC@=K5 48A?@>?>@F88, >B;>65==K5 AB@C:BC@=K5 @5D>@<K. =0;878@CNBAO >A=>2=K5 <>45;8 @5D>@< 2 @50;L=>< A5:B>@5 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8: ?>;LA:0O <>45;L (P-model), 4;O :>B>@>9 ACI5AB25==> @0AA<>B@5=85 2708<>A2O759 A5:B>@0 =>2>3> G0AB=>3> 187=5A0 A A5:B>@>< @5AB@C:BC@8@C5<KE 3>AC40@AB25==KE ?@54?@8OB89; @>AA89A:0O <>45;L (R-model), 4;O :>B>@>9 ACI5AB25==> @0AA<>B@5=85 2708<>A2O759 M:A?>@B=>->@85=B8@>20==>3> 8 2=CB@5==5->@85=B8@>20==>3> A5:B>@0; :8B09A:0O <>45;L, O2;ONI0OAO ?@>B>B8?>< 3@04C0;L=>9 ?>;8B8:8 @5D>@< 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5. A>1>5 2=8<0=85 C45;O5BAO <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:><C 0=0;87C ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=>9 R-M:>=><8:8. 0AA<0B@8205BAO <C;LB8A5:B>@=0O <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O <>45;L  R -M:>=><8:8, >?8AK20NI0O ?@>872>4AB25==K5 8 D8=0=A>2K5 2708<>A2O78 A5:B>@0 5AB5AB25==KE <>=>?>;89, M:A?>@B->@85=B8@>20==>3> 8 2=CB@5==5->@85=B8@>20==>3> A5:B>@0. >4G5@:8205BAO ?@8=F8?80;L=K9 E0@0:B5@ F5=>2KE 48A?@>?>@F89 2 AD5@5 ?@>872>4AB20, >1CA;>2;820NI89 7=0G8<>ABL =5<>=5B0@=KE D0:B>@>2 8=D;OF88 2  R -M:>=><8:0E. >4@>1=> @0AA<0B@820NBAO <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 D0:B>@K @>AB0 ?@>872>4AB20 2 M:>=><8:0E  R . =0;878@C5BAO E0@0:B5@ 3>;;0=4A:>9 1>;57=8 2  R -M:>=><8:0E 8 D>@<C;8@C5BAO 2K2>4 > =5>1E>48<>AB8 AB@C:BC@=KE @5D>@< 2 @50;L=>< A5:B>@5.  H5AB>9 B5<5 @0AA<0B@820NBAO <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 <>45;8 M2>;NF88 :@548B=>-45=56=>9 A8AB5<K 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. >4@>1=> @0AA<0B@8205BAO <>45;L ?@>F5AA0 4>;;0@870F88 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5, 0=0;878@CNBAO >A=>2=K5 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 D0:B>@K, ?@54>?@545;ONI85 48=0<8:C ?@>F5AA0 4>;;0@870F88. 0;55 8AA;54C5BAO 2708<>A2O7L 48=0<8:8 45=56=>9 <0AAK, >1<5==>3> :C@A0 8 8=D;OF88 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. A>1>5 2=8<0=85 C45;O5BAO 8AA;54>20=8N C@02=5=8O A?@>A0 =0 45=L38 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E; ?>4G5@:820NBAO @07;8G8O 2 E0@0:B5@5 D0:B>@>2, >?@545;ONI8E A?@>A =0 45=L38 2 @K=>G=>9 8 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5. 0;55 0=0;878@C5BAO ?>;8B8:0 @50;L=>3> >1<5==>3> :C@A0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. A>1>5 2=8<0=85 C45;O5BAO ?@>1;5<5 2708<>A2O78 ! 8 >1<5==>3> :C@A0. AA;54C5BAO 2;8O=85 :C@A>2>9 48=0<8:8 =0 8=D;OF8N 8 M:>=><8G5A:89 @>AB. 7;>65=85 8;;NAB@8@C5BAO ?@8<5@0<8 :@878A>2 ?;0B56=>3> 10;0=A0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 5<>=AB@8@C5BAO 2;8O=85 :C@A>2>9 ?>;8B8:8 =0 A>AB>O=85 ?;0B56=>3> 10;0=A0 8 :@878AK 2 :@548B=>-45=56=>9 AD5@5.  A54L<>9 B5<5 @0AA<0B@8205BAO @>;L 3>AC40@AB20 2 ?@>2545=88 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@<. 05BAO H8@>:89 >17>@ A>2@5<5==>9 48A:CAA88 > ?@>1;5<5 @07<5@0 ?@028B5;LAB20 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. =0;878@CNBAO B5>@5B8G5A:85 (Stiglitz (1997), Shleifer (1997), Rodrik (1996), C@28G (2000)) 8 M<?8@8G5A:85 (Barro (1991), Levi, Renelt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ommander-Toltopyatenko (1997). 0AA<0B@820NBAO <C;LB8A5:B>@=K5 <>45;8 48=0<8:8 A?@>A0 =0 B@C4 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E: 2708<>A2O7L A 48=0<8:>9 ?@>872>4AB20, 107>2K<8 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8<8 ?0@0<5B@0<8. A>15==>5 2=8<0=85 C45;O5BAO 8AA;54>20=8N D0:B>@>2, 2;8ONI8E =0 48=0<8:C 70=OB>AB8 2 @>AA89A:>9 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5 (P-model) 0;55 0=0;878@C5BAO 48=0<8:0 4>E>4>2, @0AE>4>2 8 A15@565=89 =0A5;5=8O 2 ?@>F5AA5 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@<. 5;05BAO 2K2>4 >1 C3;C1;5=88 A>F80;L=>9 48DD5@5=F80F88 ?> 4>E>40< 2 ?>ABA>F80;8AB8G5A:8E AB@0=0E. AA;54CNBAO <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 D0:B>@K, >1CA;>2;820NI85 C3;C1;5=85 A>F80;L=>9 48DD5@5=F80F88 ?> 4>E>40< 2 @>AA89A:>9 <>45;8. !CI5AB25==>5 2=8<0=85 C45;O5BAO M<?8@8G5A:8< 8 <>45;L=K< 8AA;54>20=8O< >A>15==>AB59 ?>2545=8O 4><>E>7O9AB2 2 ?5@8>4 @5D>@<. =0;878@CNBAO D0:B>@K, >?@545;ONI85 48=0<8:C ?>B@51;5=8O 8 A15@565=89. A>1>5 2=8<0=85 C45;O5BAO ?@>1;5<5 B5702@0F88 A15@565=89 2 CA;>28OE 2KA>:>9 8=D;OF88. =25AB8F88 8 A15@565=8O 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E: A>F80;L=K9 0A?5:B. 52OB0O B5<0 ?>A2OI5=0 0=0;87C M2>;NF88 B5=52>3> A5:B>@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. ;O R- M:>=><8: (1>30BK5 ?@8@>4=K5 @5AC@AK, 0:F5=B =0 ?@58<CI5AB25==>< @0728B88 M:A?>@B->@85=B8@>20==KE 4>1K20NI8E >B@0A;59) E0@0:B5@5= =5C:;>==K9 @>AB 4>;8 B5=52>3> A5:B>@0 2 , B>340 :0: 4;O L-M:>=><8: (>B=>A8B5;L=> 154=K5 ?@8@>4=K5 @5AC@AK, 0:F5=B =0 @0728B88 >1@010BK20NI8E >B@0A;59) E0@0:B5@=0 ?0@01>;8G5A:0O 48=0<8:0 4>;8 B5=52>3> A5:B>@0 2 , O2;ONI0OAO 75@:0;L=K< >B@065=85< U->1@07=>3> ?0BB5@=0 48=0<8:8 03@538@>20==>3> 2K?CA:0. -B8 ?@8=F8?80;L=K5 @07;8G8O >1JOA=ONBAO ACI5AB25==>9 @>;LN <5E0=87<>2 B>@3>2>-D8=0=A>2>3> ?>A@54=8G5AB20 2 R- M:>=><8:0E: @0A?04 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 AB@C:BC@K R-M:>=><8:8 =0 =5A:>;L:> A5:B>@>2, >B;8G0NI8EAO ?> CA;>28O< :>=:C@5=F88 =0 2=CB@5==5< 8 2=5H=5< @K=:5, ?@82>48B : @57:><C @>ABC B@0=A0:F8>==KE 8745@65: M:>=><8G5A:8E >1<5=>2 8 2>7<>6=>ABO< 872;5G5=8O ACI5AB25==>9 <0@68 70 ?>A@54=8G5A:85 CA;C38. >45;8 48=0<8:8 =5D>@<0;L=>3> A5:B>@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E B8?0 R 8 L, @0AA<0B@8205<K5 2 @0<:0E B5<K 9, >A=>20=K =0 AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>< ?>4E>45: 8AA;54C5BAO 48=0<8:0 >A=>2=KE D8=0=A>2KE ?>:070B5;59 @01>BK ?@54?@8OB89 2 @07;8G=KE A5:B>@0E A CG5B>< D0:B>@>2 B@0=A0:F8>==KE 8745@65:, >1CA;>2;5==KE <5E0=87<0<8 B>@3>2>-D8=0=A>2>3> ?>A@54=8G5AB20. $>@<0;L=K9 0=0;87 MB8E <>45;59 ?>72>;O5B A45;0BL 2K2>4K > AB5?5=8 MDD5:B82=>AB8 B@048F8>==KE 8=AB@C<5=B>2 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E R 8 L. >=F5?F8O A0<>AB>OB5;L=>9 @01>BK ABC45=B>2 @54?>;0305BAO, GB> A0<>AB>OB5;L=0O @01>B0 ABC45=B>2 1C45B ?@>E>48BL ?>4 @C:>2>4AB2>< 254CI53> ?@5?>4020B5;O ?> A;54CNI8< =0?@02;5=8O<: #3;C1;5==>5 87CG5=85 @0AA<0B@8205<KE 2 :C@A5 <>45;59, 4;O G53> ?@54?>;0305BAO >1O70B5;L=>5 >7=0:><;5=85 A ?5@2>8AB>G=8:0<8 <>45;59 (A 8A?>;L7>20=85< A>AB02;O5<>3> @845@0). ;O MB>3> ?@54;030NBAO C3;C1;5==K5 4>?>;=8B5;L=K5 2>?@>AK 8 7040=8O : :064>9 B5<5; 7CG5=85 4>?>;=8B5;L=KE <>45;59, @0AH8@ONI8E 107>2K9 <0B5@80; ?> B5<0< 70=OB89. ;O MB>3> ?@54;0305BAO 4>?>;=8B5;L=0O ;8B5@0BC@0 ?> :064>9 B5<5. @54?>;0305BAO ?@>2545=85 A0<>AB>OB5;L=KE M:>=><5B@8G5A:8E 8AA;54>20=89 ?> <0B5@80;0< @0AA<0B@8205<KE B5< (=5:>B>@K5 7040=8O ?@54;030NBAO 2 G8A;5 4>?>;=8B5;L=KE 2>?@>A>2 4;O A0<>AB>OB5;L=>9 @01>BK); ;O 2>7<>6=>3> @0AH8@5=8O :@C30 8AA;54C5<KE ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8: ?@54;030NBAO 4>?>;=8B5;L=K5 B5<K 4;O A0<>AB>OB5;L=>3> 87CG5=8O > 7025@H5=8O :C@A0 :064K9 ABC45=B 4>;65= 2K?>;=8BL A0<>AB>OB5;L=CN ?8AL<5==CN @01>BC  MAA5 ?> B5<0B8:5 :C@A0. @8<5@=K5 B5<K MAA5 ?@82545=K 2 A?8A:0E 4>?>;=8B5;L=KE 2>?@>A>2. "5<0 1. 2545=85. @54<5B ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. @>F5AA M:>=><8G5A:8E B@0=AD>@<0F89. &5;8 8 7040G8 ?5@5E>40 >B ?;0=0 : @K=:C. @>3@0<<K @5D>@<. 0H8=3B>=A:89 8 ?>AB-0H8=3B>=A:89 :>=A5=ACA. "5>@5B8G5A:85 ?>4E>4K : 0=0;87C ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:. 5>:;0AA8:0 8 ?>AB:59=A80=AB2>: ?>?KB:8 8 =5C40G8 ?5@2>=0G0;L=KE B5>@89 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. =AB8BCF8>=0;L=K5 8 AB@C:BC@=K5 ?@>1;5<K ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 1. A=>2=0O O. Blanchard, R. Dornbush, P. Krugman, R. Layard, L. Summers . Reform in Eastern Europe. WIDER, 1991. 6. !B83;8F C40 84CB @5D>@<K? 5AOBL ;5B =0 ?CB8 : @K=:C. >?@>AK M:>=><8:8, ! 7, 1999 . >;>4:> B H>:0 : B5@0?88. >;8B8G5A:0O M:>=><8O ?>ABA>F80;8AB8G5A:8E ?@5>1@07>20=89. . 2000 M. Lavigne The Economics of Transition. From Socialist Economy to Market Economy. London, 1995 D. North. The Contribution of the New Institutional Economics to an Understanding of the Transition Problem. WIDER Annual Lectures,1, Helsinki, 1997. >?>;=8B5;L=0O J. Kornai Economics of Shortage. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1980 ". 8=2C4 0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O B5>@8O 8 ?5@5E>4=0O M:>=><8:0. . 1996 . 0;LF5@>28G !>F80;87<, :0?8B0;87<, B@0=AD>@<0F8O. . 1999 N. Stern, J. Stiglitz A Framework for a Development Strategy in a Market Economy: Objectives, Scope, Institutions and Instruments. EBRD Working papers, 20, 1997 P. Welfens. EU Eastern Enlargement and the Russian Transformation Crisis. Springer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hither Socialism? (1994) "5<0 2. 5B>4>;>38G5A:85 ?@>1;5<K 8AA;54>20=8O ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 A=>2=K5 8458 8 ?@8=F8?K =5>:;0AA8G5A:>3> 8 =5>:59=A80=A:>3> 0=0;870 ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. ;LB5@=0B82=K5 <5B>4>;>38G5A:85 ?>4E>4K : 8AA;54>20=8N ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8: M2>;NF8>=87< (6.!B83;8F), A8AB5<=K9 ?>4E>4 (/.>@=08), 8=AB8BCF8>=0;87< (.>@B) 8 AB@C:BC@0;87<. 458 8 ?@8=F8?K AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>3> 0=0;870 M:>=><8G5A:8E A8AB5<. "8?>;>38O <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E AB@C:BC@. !B@C:BC@0;8ABA:85 <>45;8 G0AB=>3> 8 >1I53> <8:@>- 8 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>3> @02=>25A8O. !B@C:BC@=K9 0=0;87 =5@02=>25A=KE <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E A8AB5<. 5@5E>4=0O M:>=><8:0 :0: =5@02=>25A=0O 18?>;O@=0O <0:@>AB@C:BC@0. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 2 AB>G=8:8 . 9:5=. A=>2=K5 ?@8=F8?K M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8. . 1995. J. Kornai.. The System Paradigm. WDI Working Papers. WP 278. 1998. G. Shackle. Epistemics and Economics. A Critique of Economic Doctrines. Cambridge, 1972. W. Leontyev. Input-Output Analysis. In: J. Eatwell, M.Milgate and P.Newman (eds.) The New Palgrave. A Dictionary of Economics, vol.2, pp.860-864. A=>2=0O Ed. Phelps. Structural Slumps. MIT Press, 1994. O. Blanchard The Economics of Post-Communist Transition. Oxford. 1997 . @>4A:89 "@0=AD>@<0F8>==K5 :@878AK. -:>=><8G5A:89 6C@=0; #-(-, 1998, ! 3, 322-341. >?>;=8B5;L=0O ... /@5<5=:> @8>@8B5BK AB@C:BC@=>9 ?>;8B8:8 8 >?KB @5D>@<. . 1999 L. Taylor Structuralist Macroeconomics, N.Y.. 1983 J. Stiglitz Whither Socialism? Harvard, 1994 M. Woodford. Structural Slumps. Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 32, 4, 1994. >?>;=8B5;L=K5 2>?@>AK 8 7040=8O 4;O A0<>AB>OB5;L=>9 @01>BK ABC45=B>2 ?> B5<5 2. 0:>2K, ?> 0H5<C <=5=8N, ?5@A?5:B82K ?@8<5=5=8O E@5AB><0B89=KE <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E <>45;59 (ISLM, AS-AD, OLG, etc.) : 0=0;87C <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:? 1>A=C9B5 0H >B25B =0 ?@8<5@0E ?@8<5=5=8O ?>4>1=KE <>45;59 : 0=0;87C ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 !D>@<C;8@C9B5 >A=>2=K5 ?@8=F8?K AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>9 <5B>4>;>388 8AA;54>20=8O M:>=><8G5A:8E A8AB5<.  G5< 70:;NG05BAO 55 0:BC0;L=>ABL 4;O 0=0;870 B@0=AD>@<0F8>==KE ?@>F5AA>2? >:068B5 CAB>9G82>ABL @02=>25A8O 2 AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>9 48=0<8G5A:>9 <>45;8 >1<5=0 A <C;LB8?;8:0B82=K<8 B@0=70:F8>==K<8 8745@6:0<8. 0: 8=B5@?@5B8@>20BL MB>B @57C;LB0B 2 :>=B5:AB5 B@0=AD>@<0F8>==>3> A?040 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5 D878G5A:8E ;8F? !D>@<C;8@C9B5 >A=>2=K5 @07;8G8O AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:8E 8 =5>:;0AA8G5A:8E <>45;59 D5=><5=>2  moral hazard 8  adverse selection .  G5< ?@58<CI5AB20 AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>3> >?8A0=8O MB8E D5=><5=>2 4;O 0=0;870 ?@>1;5< ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8? 725AB=>, GB> DC=40<5=B0;L=K< @07;8G85< =5>:;0AA8G5A:8E 8 =5>:59=A80=A:8E <>45;59 G0AB=>3> 8 >1I53> <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>3> @02=>25A8O O2;O5BAO A?5F8D8:0 38?>B57 > E0@0:B5@5 ?>2545=8O M:>=><8G5A:8E 035=B>2 =0 @K=:5 B@C40 8 @K=:5 A15@565=89-8=25AB8F89. 0A:>;L:>, ?> 0H5<C <=5=8N, AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:89 0=0;87 ?>72>;O5B ?@5>4>;5BL MB8 @07;8G8O? 1>A=C9B5 0H >B25B =0 ?@8<5@0E AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:8E <>45;59 @K=:0 B@C40 8 @K=:0 A15@565=89-8=25AB8F89. "5<0 3. A=>2=K5 D0:BK 8 38?>B57K > <5E0=87<0E B@0=AD>@<0F88 A>15==>AB8 ?5@5E>40 >B ?;0=>2>9 : @K=>G=>9 M:>=><8:5. 8=0<8:0 03@538@>20==>3> 2K?CA:0, ?@><KH;5==>3> ?@>872>4AB20, 8=25AB8F89, 70=OB>AB8 8 ?@>872>48B5;L=>AB8 B@C40. -2>;NF8O 03@538@>20==>3> A?@>A0, 3>AC40@AB25==KE @0AE>4>2, 45D8F8B0 1N465B0, G8AB>3> M:A?>@B0. !@02=8B5;L=K9 0=0;87 D0:B>2 > ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E &5=B@0;L=>9 8 >AB>G=>9 2@>?K, >AA88 8 AB@0= !. 078A=K5 38?>B57K > <5E0=87<0E M:>=><8G5A:>9 B@0=AD>@<0F88: @50;;>:0F8O @5AC@A>2, 457>@30=870F8O M:>=><8G5A:>9 <8:@>A@54K, @5AB@C:BC@870F8O ?@>872>4AB20. @>F5AA @50;;>:0F88 @5AC@A>2 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 2CEA5:B>@=K5 <>45;8 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:. >45;L . ;0=H0@0: 2708<>A2O7L 48=0<8:8 G0AB=>3> 8 3>AC40@AB25==>3> A5:B>@0, 70=OB>AB8 8 1N465B=>3> 45D8F8B0. =B5@?@5B0F8O U->1@07=>3> ?0BB5@=0 48=0<8:8 03@538@>20==>3> 2K?CA:0, ?@><KH;5==>3> ?@>872>4AB20 8 8=25AB8F89 =0 >A=>25 42CEA5:B>@=KE <>45;59. 57>@30=870F8O <8:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 A@54K 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 5@02=>25A=K5 <0B5<0B8G5A:85 <>45;8 ?@>F5AA>2 457>@30=870F88. =0;87 2;8O=8O ?@>F5AA0 457>@30=870F88 =0 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:CN 48=0<8:C. 5AB@C:BC@870F8O ?@54?@8OB89. @>F5AA ?@820B870F88 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E &5=B@0;L=>9 8 >AB>G=>9 2@>?K. >AA89A:0O ?@820B870F8O 1992-1997. 0B5<0B8G5A:85 <>45;8 ?@820B870F8>==KE ?@>F5AA>2. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 3 A=>2=0O O. Blanchard The Economics of Post-Communist Transition. Oxford. 1997 . 0940@ (@54.) -:>=><8:0 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40. G5@:8 M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 ?>AB:><<C=8AB8G5A:>9 >AA88 1991-1997. . 1998 Fischer, R. Sahay, C. Vegh. From transition to market: evidence and growth prospects. In: Lessons from the economic transition. Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s. Kluwer. 1997. P. Jasinski and G. Yarrow. Privatisation: An Overview of the Issues. In: Yarrow G. and P.Jasinski (eds.) Privatisation. Critical perspectives on the world economy. Vol.1 M. Boycko, A. Shleifer, R. Vishny. A Theory of Privatisation. The Economic Journal, 1996, V.106 >?>;=8B5;L=0O !. . C:CF8>=5: -<?8@8:0 ?5@5E>40 : @K=:C. ?KB >AA88. . 1998 E. Gavrilenkov, M. Kuboniwa. Development of Capitalism in Russia. Second challenge.Tokio. 1997. J.Earl, S.Estrin. Privatisatisation Versus Competition: Changing Enterprise Behavior in Russia. WDI Working Paper, n 70, 1997. #?@02;5=85 M:>=><8:>9 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40. 0CG=K9 0=0;87 4;O ?@02OI59 M;8BK 8 :>=AB@C:B82=>9 >???>78F88 !1.AB0B59 ?>4 @54. .0:0@>20. . 1998. -:>=><8G5A:85 >17>@K -! : >AA89A:0O $545@0F8O, 1997, 2000 >;LH0, 1996, 2000 5=3@8O, 1999 '5E8O, 2000 PlanEcon. Review and Outlook for Eastern Europe. Washington DC, 1998. PlanEcon. Review and Outlook for the Former Soviet Union. Washington DC, 1998. >?>;=8B5;L=K5 2>?@>AK 8 7040=8O 4;O A0<>AB>OB5;L=>9 @01>BK ABC45=B>2 ?> B5<5 3 A?>;L7CO 4>ABC?=K5 107K 40==KE 8 ;8B5@0BC@=K5 8AB>G=8:8, ?@>2548B5 A0<>AB>OB5;L=>5 A@02=8B5;L=>5 8AA;54>20=85 48=0<8:8 :;NG52KE <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E 8=48:0B>@>2 2 ?>AB:><<C=8AB8G5A:8E AB@0=0E 2 1990-5 33.  G5<, ?> 0H5<C <=5=8N, ?@8G8=K @07;8G=>9 48=0<8:8 @5D>@< 2 AB@0=0E &, !, 8B0O 8 L5B=0<0? @>2548B5 A0<>AB>OB5;L=>5 B5>@5B8G5A:>5 8AA;54>20=85 <>48D8F8@>20==>9 <>45;8 ;0=H0@0 A @07;8G=K< C@>2=5< =><8=0;L=>9 70@01>B=>9 ?;0BK ?> A5:B>@0< M:>=><8:8.  G5< =>287=0 2K2>4>2 MB>3> 0=0;870 2 A@02=5=88 A >@838=0;L=>9 <>45;LN ;0=H0@0? !D>@<C;8@C9B5 CA;>28O CAB>9G82>AB8 @02=>25A8O 2 48=0<8G5A:>9 AB@C:BC@0;8ABA:>9 <>45;8 42CE 2708<>A2O70==KE @K=:>2. 0: 8=B5@?@5B8@>20BL MB>B @57C;LB0B =0 ?@8<5@5 ?@>F5AA0 457>@30=870F88 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5? >G5<C MB8 CA;>28O @02=>25A8O, :0: ?@028;>, =0@CH0NBAO 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5? 0?8H8B5 MAA5 =0 B5<C @820B870F8O 8 :>=:C@5=F8O, 8A?>;L7CO @01>BK Earl, Estrin (1997), Jasinski, Yarrow (1997), Boyko, Shleifer, Vishny (1996) "5<0 4. @>1;5<K <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E -2>;NF8O <0:@>A@54K 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O ?>;8B8:0 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40. (>:>20O B5@0?8O 8 3@04C0;87<. >45;L ?>;8B8:8 H>:>2>9 B5@0?88 5@30-!0:A0. !@02=8B5;L=K9 0=0;87 @07;8G=KE 20@80=B>2 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. >45;L B@0=AD>@<0F8>==>9 @5=BK . A;C=40. N465B=0O ?>;8B8:0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E.  O3:>5 1N465B=>5 >3@0=8G5=85 , AC1A8488 8 =5?;0B568. 8=0<8:0 3>AC40@AB25==>3> 4>;30 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. @548B=>-45=56=0O ?>;8B8:0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 8;5<<0  65AB:>9 8  <O3:>9 <>=5B0@=>9 ?>;8B8:8. @>F5AA 4>;;0@870F88 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E; 53> 2;8O=85 =0 B5<? M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@<. 0;NB=0O ?>;8B8:0 8 ?@>F5AA 4>;;0@870F88. 568<K >1<5==>3> :C@A0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E; 8E 2;8O=85 =0 48=0<8:C 2=5H=59 B>@3>2;8 8 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:>5 @0728B85. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 4. A=>2=0O O. Blanchard, R. Dornbush, P. Krugman, R. Layard, L. Summers . Reform in Eastern Europe. WIDER, 1991. . Berg , J. Sachs. Structural adjustment and international trade in Eastern Europe: the case of Poland. Economic Policy ,v. 16, 1992 . Aslund, P. Boone, S. Johnson. How to stabilize: Lessons from post-communist countries. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1996 . >;>4:> B H>:0 : B5@0?88. >;8B8G5A:0O M:>=><8O ?>ABA>F80;8AB8G5A:8E ?@5>1@07>20=89. . 2000 F. Coricelli. Macroeconomic Policies and the Development of Markets in Transition Economies. CEU Press, Budapest, 1998. >?>;=8B5;L=0O North D. Big-Bang Transformations of Economic Systems: an Introductory Note. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, vol. 156, 2000 Arrow K. Economic Transition: Speed and Scope. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, vol. 156, 2000 V. Popov. Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate (Explaining the Magnitude of Transformational Recession). Comparative Economic Studies, XLII, 1, 2000 J. Sachs. My Plan for Poland. International Economy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opov  Shock Therapy versus Gradualism. The End Of the Debate (2000). "5<0 5 . >45;8 48=0<8:8 @50;L=>3> A5:B>@0 A=>2=K5 ?@>1;5<K @50;L=>3> A5:B>@0 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:: B@0=D>@<0F8>==K9 A?04, 8=25AB8F8>==K9 :@878A, AB@C:BC@=K5 48A?@>?>@F88, >B;>65==K5 AB@C:BC@=K5 @5D>@<K. V>45;8 @5D>@< 2 @50;L=>< A5:B>@5 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8: ?>;LA:0O <>45;L (P-model), 4;O :>B>@>9 ACI5AB25==> @0AA<>B@5=85 2708<>A2O759 A5:B>@0 =>2>3> G0AB=>3> 187=5A0 A A5:B>@>< @5AB@C:BC@8@C5<KE 3>AC40@AB25==KE ?@54?@8OB89; @>AA89A:0O <>45;L (R-model), 4;O :>B>@>9 ACI5AB25==> @0AA<>B@5=85 2708<>A2O759 M:A?>@B=>->@85=B8@>20==>3> 8 2=CB@5==5->@85=B8@>20==>3> A5:B>@0; :8B09A:0O <>45;L (C-model), O2;ONI0OAO ?@>B>B8?>< 3@04C0;L=>9 ?>;8B8:8 @5D>@< 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5. C;LB8A5:B>@=0O <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O <>45;L  R -M:>=><8:8: 2708<>A2O7L A5:B>@0 5AB5AB25==KE <>=>?>;89, M:A?>@B->@85=B8@>20==>3>, 2=CB@5==5->@85=B8@>20==>3> A5:B>@0. &5=>2K5 48A?@>?>@F88 2 AD5@5 ?@>872>4AB20. 5<>=5B0@=K5 D0:B>@K 8=D;OF88 2  R -M:>=><8:0E. 0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 D0:B>@K @>AB0 ?@>872>4AB20 2 M:>=><8:0E  R . >;;0=4A:0O 1>;57=L 8 AB@C:BC@=K5 @5D>@<K 2  R -M:>=><8:0E. @>1;5<0 =5?;0B5659 8 10@B5@0 2 M:>=><8:5  R : <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:89 0=0;87. =25AB8F8>==K9 :@878A 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E: <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 <5E0=87<K 8 D0:B>@K. 5@5E>4 : 8=25AB8F8>==><C @>ABC 8 >1=>2;5=8N >A=>2=>3> :0?8B0;0 @50;L=>3> A5:B>@0: 0=0;87 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E ?@54?>AK;>: =0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=KE <>45;59. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 5. A=>2=0O O. Blanchard The Economics of Post-Communist Transition. Oxford. 1997 J. Kornai Transformational Recession: the Main Causes. Journal of Comparative Economics, 19, 1994, N 1, pp.39-63. G. Duchene Structural Change and Output Decline in Transition Economies. Economic Journal HSE, v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omulka. Output:Causes of the decline and recovery. In: Understanding Transition. MIT Press, 1998. >?>;=8B5;L=K5 2>?@>AK 8 7040=8O 4;O A0<>AB>OB5;L=>9 @01>BK ABC45=B>2 ?> B5<5 5. A?>;L7CO 4>ABC?=K5 107K 40==KE 8 AB0B8AB8G5A:85 >17>@K ?> ?5@5E>4=K< M:>=><8:0<, ?@>2548B5 A0<>AB>OB5;L=>5 A@02=8B5;L=>5 8AA;54>20=85 48=0<8:8 ?>:070B5;59 ?@>872>4AB20, M:A?>@B0 8 8<?>@B0 2 @07;8G=KE ?>ABA>F80;8AB8G5A:8E AB@0=0E. > 0H5<C <=5=8N, 40NB ;8 >A=>20=8O MB8 40==K5 4;O 2K2>40 > :0G5AB25==KE @07;8G8OE ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8 R 8 L? 0AA<>B@8B5 <>48D8:0F8N <C;LB8A5:B>@=>9 <>45;8 M:>=><8:8 R, 2 :>B>@>9 G0ABL ?@>4C:F88 5AB5AB25==KE <>=>?>;89 ?>AB02;O5BAO =0 M:A?>@B. 0:>2K >A>15==>AB8 MB>9 <>45;8? !>E@0=O5BAO ;8 :0G5AB25==K9 E0@0:B5@ 2K2>4>2 > D0:B>@0E M:>=><8G5A:>3> @>AB0, > 2708<>A2O78 B5<?>2 8=D;OF88 8 @>AB0 2 @07;8G=KE A5:B>@0E? 0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=>9 <>45;8 M:>=><8:8 R ?@>0=0;878@C9B5 D0:B>@K, >?@545;ONI85 48=0<8:C 8=25AB8F89 2 >A=>2=K5 ?@>872>4AB25==K5 D>=4K 4;O A5:B>@>2 -!, ! 8 . 0: 8725AB=>, 2 >AA88 2 1999-2001 33. >A=>2=0O 4>;O 8=25AB8F89 2 >1=>2;5=85 ?@>872>4AB25==KE D>=4>2 ?@8E>48;0AL =0 M:A?>@B=>->@85=B8@>20==K9 A5:B>@. '5< MB> >1JOA=O5BAO? @82548B5 B5>@5B8G5A:85 0@3C<5=BK =0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=>9 <>45;8. 0?8H8B5 @5D5@0B 8;8 4>:;04 ?> @01>B5 ./A8=0 (2001)>45@=870F8O @>AA89A:>9 M:>=><8:8: GB> 2 ?>25AB:5 4=O? 0?8H8B5 MAA5 =0 >A=>25 @01>BK .!28=0@5=:>, /.C7L<8=>2, . C7=5F>2 A=>2=K5 =0?@02;5=8O AB@C:BC@=>9 ?>;8B8:8 <8 @53C;8@>20=8O >B@0A;52KE @K=:>2 (2000) "5<0 6. >45;8 M2>;NF88 :@548B=>-45=56=>9 A8AB5<K 708<>A2O7L 48=0<8:8 45=56=>9 <0AAK, >1<5==>3> :C@A0 8 8=D;OF88 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. #@02=5=85 A?@>A0 =0 45=L38: @07;8G8O 4;O @K=>G=>9 8 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:8. >45;L ?@>F5AA0 4>;;0@870F88 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5. >;8B8:0 @50;L=>3> >1<5==>3> :C@A0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. ! 8 >1<5==K9 :C@A. ;8O=85 :C@A>2>9 48=0<8:8 =0 8=D;OF8N 8 M:>=><8G5A:89 @>AB. -2>;NF8O 10=:>2A:>9 A8AB5<K 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. $0:B>@K, >?@545;ONI85 48=0<8:C 10=:>2A:8E 45?>78B>2 8 :@548B>2.: <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:89 0=0;87. !B@C:BC@=K5 @5D>@<K 2 10=:>2A:>9 A8AB5<5. 8B5@0BC@0 ?> B5<5 6 A=>2=0O B. Brodsky. Dollarization and Monetary Policy in Russia. Bank of Finland, Review of Economies in Transition, 1997, 6, pp. 49-62. D. Qin, A.Vanags. Modelling the inflation process in transition economies: Empirical comparison of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. Economics of Planning, 1996, v. 29, pp.147-168 J. Vincze. Chronic Moderate Inflation in Transition: the Tale of Hungary. WDI Working paper N176, 1998 D. Begg Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis. Journal of Comparative Economics, 1998, v.26, 669-690 >?>;=8B5;L=0O .. !<8@=>2 5:F88 ?> <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:><C <>45;8@>20=8N, #-(-, 2000 (;5:F8O 7, 8) >?@>AK 8 7040=8O : B5<5 6 0 >A=>25 4>ABC?=KE 107 40==KE 8 AB0B8AB8G5A:8E 8AB>G=8:>2 ?> ?5@5E>4=K< M:>=><8:0< ?@>2548B5 A0<>AB>OB5;L=>5 8AA;54>20=85 D0:B>@>2, >?@545;ONI8E 48=0<8:C ?@>F5AA0 4>;;0@870F88 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. !>?>AB02LB5 0H8 2K2>4K A 8<5NI59AO ;8B5@0BC@>9 =0 MBC B5<C? !>3;0A=K ;8 K A <=5=8O<8 02B>@>2? 0?8H8B5 :@0B:89 >BG5B > 0H8E 8AA;54>20=8OE. 0 >A=>25 8<5NI59AO AB0B8AB8G5A:>9 8=D>@<0F88 ?@>2548B5 A0<>AB>OB5;L=>5 M:>=><5B@8G5A:>5 8AA;54>20=85 2708<>A2O78 48=0<8:8 45=56=>9 <0AAK, 8=D;OF88 8 >1<5==>3> :C@A0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E >AA88 8 >;LH8. !>?>AB02LB5 0H8 2K2>4K 4;O MB8E M:>=><8:. '5< >1JOA=O5BAO CAB>9G82>5 @0AE>645=85 2 B5<?0E @>AB0 45=56=>9 <0AAK 8 B5<?0E 8=D;OF88 4;O ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:? 0:>20 @>;L :C@A>2>9 48=0<8:8 8 ?@>F5=B=KE AB02>: 2 >?@545;5=88 E0@0:B5@0 MB8E 7028A8<>AB59? 0?8H8B5 :@0B:89 >BG5B > 0H8E 8AA;54>20=8OE. 0?8H8B5 MAA5 =0 B5<C $8=0=A>2K5 :@878AK 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E: ?@8G8=K, D0:B>@K, ?>A;54AB28O A 8A?>;L7>20=85< 8AB>G=8:>2, C:070==KE 2 A?8A:5 ;8B5@0BC@K : B5<5. 0?8H8B5 @5D5@0B AB0BL8 Qin  Vanags (1996) A 0=0;87>< D0:B>@>2 8=D;OF88 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. "5<0 7. >AC40@AB2> 2 ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:5 >;L 3>AC40@AB20 2 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@<0E. 07<5@ ?@028B5;LAB20, AB@C:BC@=K5 @5D>@<K 8 ;815@0;870F8O M:>=><8:8. =0;87 48=0<8:8 =0;>3>>1;0305<>9 107K, 4>E>4>2 8 @0AE>4>2 3>AC40@AB25==>3> 1N465B0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E =0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=KE <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8E <>45;59. 07<5@ ?@028B5;LAB20 8 M:>=><8G5A:89 @>AB: <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:89 0=0;87 ?@>1;5<K =0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=>9 <>45;8. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 7 A=>2=0O A5<8@=K9 10=:. BG5B > <8@>2>< @0728B88. >AC40@AB2> 2 <5=ONI5<AO <8@5. 1997 J. Stiglitz. More Instruments and Broader Goals: Moving Toward the Post-Washington Consensus. WIDER Annual Lectures, 2. 1997 D. Rodrik. Understanding Economic Policy Reform. Journal of Economic Literature, 34, 9-41, 1996. .".C@28G >AC40@AB25==0O ?>;8B8:0 AB8<C;8@>20=8O M:>=><8G5A:>3> @>AB0. =B5@=5B-AB0BLO,  HYPERLINK "http://www.eeg.ru" www.eeg.ru, 2000 .;;0@8>=>2 @5<O 3>AC40@AB20. >?@>AK M:>=><8:8,9, 1996 . $@84<0=, 84OA>2 ., 5;LO=F52 . >AC40@A25==K5 @0AE>4K 8 M:>=><8G5A:89 @>AB. 8@>20O M:>=><8:0 8 <564C=0@>4=K5 >B=>H5=8O, 10, 11, 1999. . !<8@=>2. 5:F88 ?> <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:><C <>45;8@>20=8N. . #-(-, 2000 >?>;=8B5;L=0O R. Barro, X. Sala-I-Martin. Economic Growth. McGraw Hill, 1995 Durlauf S., Quah D. The New Empirics of Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper 6422, 1998 Caselli F., Esquivel G., Lefort F. Reopening the Convergence Debate: a New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 1996 Olson M., Sarna N., Swamy A. Governance and Growth: a Simple Hypothesis Explaining Cross-Country Differences in Productivity Growth. Public Choice, v.102,p.341-364, 2000 S.Rebelo. Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth. NBER Working Paper 3325, 1990. R. Barro. Determinants of Economic Growth. MIT Press, 1997. >?@>AK 8 7040=8O : B5<5 7. !>?>AB02LB5 <=5=8O @>AA89A:8E M:>=><8AB>2 .;;0@8>=>20 (1996) 8 .C@28G0 (2000) ?> 2>?@>AC > 2;8O=88 C@>2=O 3>AC40@AB25==KE @0AE>4>2 =0 M:>=><8G5A:89 @>AB 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 0A:>;L:> 8 :0:8<8 0@3C<5=B0<8 >1>A=>20=K ?>78F88 ;;0@8>=>20 8 C@28G0? 0:>20, =0 0H 273;O4, AB5?5=L =0CG=>9 >1>A=>20==>AB8 ?>4>1=KE 0@3C<5=B>2? 0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=>9 <>45;8 M:>=><8:8 R (: :>B>@>9 >B=>A8BAO >AA8O) ?@>0=0;878@C9B5 2;8O=85 48=0<8:8 <8@>2KE F5= =0 =5DBL =0 >?B8<0;L=K9 C@>25=L 3>AC40@AB25==KE @0AE>4>2. 4=>9 87 H8@>:> @0A?@>AB@0=5==KE B>G5: 7@5=8O =0 2>7<>6=>ABL M:>=><8G5A:>3> @>AB0 2 >AA88 O2;O5BAO :59=A80=A:89 @5F5?B AB8<C;8@CNI59 3>AC40@AB25==>9 ?>;8B8:8 2 A>F80;L=>9 AD5@5: 8=45:A0F8O <8=8<0;L=>9 70@01>B=>9 ?;0BK 2 <5@C 8=D;OF88. 0A:>;L:> 459AB25==0 MB0 ?>;8B8:0? @82548B5 D>@<0;L=K5 0@3C<5=BK =0 >A=>25 <C;LB8A5:B>@=>9 <>45;8 @>AA89A:>9 M:>=><8:8. 0?8H8B5 MAA5 ?> >4=>9 87 AB0B59, ?@54AB02;5==KE 2 A?8A:5 4>?>;=8B5;L=>9 ;8B5@0BC@K : 3;025 7. "5<0 8. K=>: B@C40 8 A>F80;L=0O AD5@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E 8=0<8:0 70=OB>AB8 8 A?@>A0 =0 B@C4 2 ?5@5E>4=K9 ?5@8>4. >;LA:0O <>45;L M2>;NF88 @K=:0 B@C40. >AA89A:0O <>45;L @K=:0 B@C40: >A=>2=K5 >B;8G8B5;L=K5 ?@87=0:8, 2708<>A2O7L A 48=0<8:>9 ?@>872>4AB20, 107>2K<8 <0:@>M:>=><8G5A:8<8 ?0@0<5B@0<8. 8=0<8:0 4>E>4>2, @0AE>4>2 8 A15@565=89 =0A5;5=8O 2 ?@>F5AA5 M:>=><8G5A:8E @5D>@<. #3;C1;5=85 A>F80;L=>9 48DD5@5=F80F88 ?> 4>E>40<. A>15==>AB8 ?>2545=8O 4><>E>7O9AB2 2 ?5@8>4 @5D>@<. $0:B>@K, >?@545;ONI85 48=0<8:C ?>B@51;5=8O 8 A15@565=89. @>1;5<0 B5702@0F88 A15@565=89 2 CA;>28OE 2KA>:>9 8=D;OF88. =25AB8F88 8 A15@565=8O 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E: A>F80;L=K9 0A?5:B. >;L A>F80;L=KE B@0=AD5@B>2 2 ?5@8>4 @5D>@<. !>F80;L=0O ?>;8B8:0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. !B@C:BC@=K5 @5D>@<K 2 A>F80;L=>9 AD5@5: A>F80;L=>5 AB@0E>20=85, ?5=A8>==>5 >15A?5G5=85. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 8 A=>2=0O .. 0?5;NH=8:>2 >AA89A:89 @K=>: B@C40: 040?B0F8O 157 @5AB@C:BC@870F88. #-(-, 2001 Coricelli F. Macroeconomic Policies and the Development of Markets in Transition Economies. CEU Press, Budapest, 1998 O. Blanchard The Economics of Post-Communist Transition. Oxford. 1997 ". 8=2C4 0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O B5>@8O 8 ?5@5E>4=0O M:>=><8:0. . 1996 >AC40@AB25==0O 8 :>@?>@0B82=0O ?>;8B8:0 70=OB>AB8 (1998) >4 @54. ".0;52>9, . >A:>2A:89 &5=B@ 0@=538. >?>;=8B5;L=0O Boeri Transition with Labour Supply. WDI Working Paper N 274, 1999 S.Commander, A.Tolstopyatenko Unemployment, Restructuring and the Pace of Transition// Lessons from the Economic Transition. Central and Eastern Europe in 1990s/ Ed. By S.Zecchini. Dordrecht. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997. 8<?5;LA>= . '0AB=K9 A5:B>@ 2 >AA88: 70=OB>ABL 8 >?;0B0 B@C40. 8@>20O M:>=><8:0 8 <564C=0@>4=K5 >B=>H5=8O, ! 2 , 1997. ". 0;520. >AA89A:89 @K=>: B@C40 8 ?>;8B8:0 70=OB>AB8: ?0@0483<K 8 ?0@04>:AK. >AC40@AB25==0O 8 :>@?>@0B82=0O ?>;8B8:0 70=OB>AB8. >4 @54. ".0;52>9. . >A:>2A:89 &5=B@ 0@=538, 1998 >?@>AK 8 7040=8O : B5<5 8 A?>;L7CO 4>ABC?=K5 107K 40==KE, ?@>2548B5 A0<>AB>OB5;L=>5 M:>=><5B@8G5A:>5 8AA;54>20=85 7028A8<>AB8 @50;L=KE ?>B@518B5;LA:8E @0AE>4>2 >B @50;L=KE >1J5<>2 ?@>872>4AB20 8 @50;L=>3> >1<5==>3> :C@A0 4;O @07;8G=KE AB@0= A ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:>9. 7<5=O5BAO ;8 :0G5AB25==K9 E0@0:B5@ <>45;8 ?> @07;8G=K< AB@0=0<? 0?8H8B5 >BG5B > 0H8E 8AA;54>20=8OE. '5< >1JOA=ONBAO :0G5AB25==K5 @07;8G8O 2 48=0<8:5 A?@>A0 =0 B@C4 2 <C;LB8A5:B>@=KE <>45;OE R- 8 L- ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:? 0A:>;L:> @50;8AB8G=K, =0 0H 273;O4, 38?>B57K, ?>;>65==K5 2 >A=>2C MB>9 <>45;8? @82548B5 M<?8@8G5A:85 8 B5>@5B8G5A:85 0@3C<5=BK. 0?8H8B5 @5D5@0B AB0BL8 Faggio G., Konings J. Gross Job Flows and Firm Growth: Evidence Using Firm Level Data on Five Countries. CEPR Working Paper no.2261, L., 1999 0?8H8B5 MAA5 =0 B5<C 2865=85 @01>G59 A8;K 2 >AA88 ?> <0B5@80;0< AB0B59 8<?5;LA>= ., 8??>;L4B . (1997), ". 0;52>9 (1998) "5<0 9. "5=52>9 A5:B>@ 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E A>15==>AB8 DC=:F8>=8@>20=8O B5=52>3> A5:B>@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. @8G8=K 8 D0:B>@K @>AB0 B5=52>3> A5:B>@0. "5=52K5 AB@C:BC@K B>@3>2>-D8=0=A>2>3> ?>A@54=8G5AB20. 5CGB5==K9 =0;8G=K9 >1>@>B 8 CE>4 >B =0;>3>2 2 >AA88. "5=52K5 ?@>872>4AB25==K5 AB@C:BC@K. 0:@>M:>=><8G5A:85 <>45;8 48=0<8:8 B5=52>3> A5:B>@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. 708<>A2O78 B5=52KE 8 >B:@KBKE AB@C:BC@. 5?;0B568, 10@B5@ 8 B5=52K5 >?5@0F88. 8B5@0BC@0 : B5<5 9 A=>2=0O S. Johnson, D. Kaufman, A.Shleifer The Unofficial Economy in Transition. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997, 2. .. @>4A:89 "5=52K5 AB@C:BC@K 8 28@BC0;L=K5 ;>2CH:8: <>45;8 =5D>@<0;L=>3> A5:B>@0 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E. -:>=><8G5A:89 6C@=0; #-(-, B.4, ! 4, 2000 C. Gaddy, B. Ickes To Restructure or Not to Restructure: Informal Activities and Enterprise Behavior in Transition. WDI Working Paper, 1998 C. Gaddy, B. Ickes Stability and Disorder: An Evolutionary Analysis of Russia s Virtual Economy, WDI Working paper, N 276, Nov, 1999 >?>;=8B5;L=0O F. Schneider, Enste D. Shadow Economies: Sizes, Causes, and Consequences. Journal of Economic Literature, vol.38, 1, 2000 M.Lasko. Hidden Economy- an Unknown Quantity. Comparative Analysis of Hidden Economies in Transition Countries, 1989-1995. Economics of Transition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asko (2000) Hidden Economy: an Unknown Quantity. 0?8H8B5 MAA5 =0 B5<C >AA89A:0O 28@BC0;L=0O M:>=><8:0: <8D 8;8 @50;L=>ABL? A 8A?>;L7>20=85< <0B5@80;>2 AB0B59 Gaddy  Ickes (1998, 1999), ./:>2;520 (1999), .20=>2>9 (1999). >?>;=8B5;L=0O ;8B5@0BC@0 ?> :C@AC Rosefilde S. Permanent Crisis in Russia: Systemic Roots. Economic Journal of HSE. v.3, N3, 1999 Komulainen T. Currency Crisis Theories - Some Explanations for the Russian Case. Economic Journal of HSE, v.3, N1, 1999 Agnion Ph., and O.Blanchard (1994) On the Speed of Adjustment in Central Europe NBER Macroeconomic Annual,1994, MIT Press. Aslund A. (1994) Lessons of the First Four Years of Systemic Change in Eastern Europe. Journ. of Comparative Economics, 19, 22-39. Balcerowicz L., A. Gelb (1995) Macropolicies of Transition to a Market Economy: A Three-Year Perspective. Washington D.C.: World Bank. Berg A. and J. Sachs (1992) Structural Adjustment and International Trade in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland. Economic Policy, 14, 117-173. Bruno M. and W. Easterly (1995) Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth. World Bank, Washington D.C. Calvo G. (1995) Varieties of Capital - Market Crises. NBER Paper Series. Commander S., Fan Q., Schaffer M. (1996) Enterprise Restructuring and Economic Policy in Russia. World Bank, Washington D.C. Edwards S. (1996) A Tale of Two Crises: Chile and Mexico. NBER Working Paper. de Melo, C. Denizer, and A.Gelb (1996) Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market. World Bank Economic Review, vol.10, no.3, 397-424. -;5:B@>==K5 07K 40==KE: www. cestat.org stat.hse.ru >;55 300 AB0B59 =0 A09B0E: William Davidson Institute Working Papers : eres.bus.umich.edu CEPR Discussion Papers in Transition Economics: www.cepr.org    `bdz~ntv2%H%,):):+l+,-0002(3r666<=HH0J2JKKT6TUU>VVVZVrVxVV\\____```a5CJ\mH sH 5\ 5CJ\mH sH  CJmH sH CJ5CJU*~0%2%H%*),):))dd $d`a$d$da$$da$$da$dq))@*x***8+:+l+,-p--&.///$0j000002(3dd $hd^ha$ $ & Fda$(3x33\445h556p6r66\78<<@:ABDEF GH(Ohd`hd & F d & Fdhd^h & Fd(OTT\\^b hl pyL~8JHj & Fdhd^hd $d`a$ $hd`ha$ $d`a$$da$hd`ha@cBccc6f8ffghgjg h:h p~H~HJ^ʅ̅ޅJLhjprЎҎڎ܎8jzΗښRZn8,.@Ÿ:V5\mH sH 5>* 5CJ\5 5mH sH \5\mH sH VhjΗȚښZ .:(Rdd$da$hd^h & FdRP>Tbrtx|ֱVdz24Nҳ(>j´ƴ(еλػڻXhl2RCJ\mH sH CJ\5>*\ \mH sH  5mH sH 55\5\mH sH mH sH QRlp*,ܫPx>btֱd4(*, $d`a$$da$dd & F d,е: XZ2|v: $ & Fda$dd $d`a$d $ & Fda$$da$d nz|hv:~8Z\|\Tdh "(0RbfrNpqxٻٻٻٻ \mH sH 5>*mH sH 5>*5\5\mH sH  5mH sH mH sH 5CJ 5CJ\5CJ\mH sH  CJmH sH J\\ <T~ "~\N & Fd $ & Fda$d$da$dq F2t* $hd^ha$ & Fd$da$ &(68D02tv `bdn*,  |~l~Th2J0H  X   4     0,.68>5\mH sH 5\ 5mH sH mH sH 5>*5>*mH sH  \mH sH 5\S*lT20    x< $ & Fda$d $d`a$$da$>  !!"""#%)*++,,../ $ & Fda$ddd$da$  !!"6"""+ +$+0+++,N/j///00011\2^2`2r2v2~22222222222222222233(3:33T4h455 55555&5(5*5,5Ѿڳڳڳڳ5\mH sH 0J 0JmH sH jUmH sH jUmH sH 5\5>*5CJmH sH CJ\mH sH mH sH  5mH sH 5F//??:@ Bd $ & F da$d$da$,585<5L5N5Z5^5j5l55569666[7c777888$;&;??:@FFNGfG*mH sH >* 5mH sH 55>*5\mH sH 5\mH sH S BEfFFFNG*mH sH >*mH sH 5\ii:j;>2>: 1$$@&a$ 5CJ\<@< 03>;>2>: 2$$@&a$5\>@> 03>;>2>: 3$$@&a$5aJB@B 03>;>2>: 4$$dh@&a$5>*:A@: A=>2=>9 H@8DB 0170F06B@6 A=>2=>9 B5:AB$a$LP@L A=>2=>9 B5:AB 2$dha$ 5CJaJ2U@2 8?5@AAK;:0 >*B*phZC@"Z A=>2=>9 B5:AB A >BABC?><$dh`a$DEF^_LM{i  <`{c5Mfgx.f89MzjkDCt P!!["% ( (B,C,n-W/2k46:&=?pCpEqEE%F$GG|HIIIIzJNKOKdKmKK-LLLMMMMN[NNVOWOOOPQ8RRRRS(U_ '"7 V d f i |Mf-/ACPd "",",L0d05588;9D9Y;j;p@@BBBBH"H[JmJKKKKKKKKLLLL MMsMuMMMPP\QmQR*RnRpRSSUUUUUUU VVVqVVVVWWcXX^^__zccEeTekeeeekffffg-ggg4hZh[hohzhhhhppppppppWq`qtttt{{3}U}~~:HEQč6b{CKЏݏ@ڛ WeCQ]~dsŭox׮12~ }%Bڸ۸NY\^hitֺ3333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333F_{5Mefgx9LIIdKlKGOVOVV-^6^ddllpptt=uMuuuO{R{{{.7GV$51JCLiv Russian UserC:\5:F88\macrotran.doc Russian UserC:\5:F88\macrotran.doc Russian UserC:\5:F88\macrotran.doc Russian UserQC:\WINDOWS\Profiles\Boris\Application Data\Microsoft\Word\2B>:>?8O macrotran.asd Russian UserC:\5:F88\macrotran.doc Russian UserC:\5:F88\macrotran.doc Russian UserC:\5:F88\macrotran.docUser BC:\WINDOWS\Application Data\Microsoft\Word\2B>:>?8O macrotran.asdUser ZH:\Pilot\Window1\>@B0;\August 2003\#-(- 11.99\Contract 4.1 TOR 226\5:F88\macrotran.docUser ZH:\Pilot\Window1\>@B0;\August 2003\#-(- 11.99\Contract 4.1 TOR 226\5:F88\macrotran.docNԲMz^g@چ qbo\ 9l]",lx?X򕖜#>x!@:"-Ղd>*r,ATiA*Q hAHrkbBj}t,LRDhR]Jr)"axޟc& Z}.l2@^ mjpc FwH\ijx:*))^)`5o(.^`. L ^ `L.  ^ `.ii^i`.9L9^9`L.  ^ `.^`.L^`L. @^`56>*CJOJQJo(. ))^)`o(.^`. L ^ `L.  ^ `.ii^i`.9L9^9`L.  ^ `.^`.L^`L.h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh pp^p`OJQJo(h @ @ ^@ `OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh PP^P`OJQJo(@^`56>*CJOJQJo(. H H^H` o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.))^)`5o(.^`. L ^ `L.  ^ `.ii^i`.9L9^9`L.  ^ `.^`.L^`L.^`o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh pp^p`OJQJo(h @ @ ^@ `OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh PP^P`OJQJo(^`o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.h 88^8`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh   ^ `OJQJo(h   ^ `OJQJo(h xx^x`OJQJo(oh HH^H`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh ^`OJQJo(  \ ^ `\5o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.*>*^*`>o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.@^`56>*CJOJQJo(. ^`o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh pp^p`OJQJo(h @ @ ^@ `OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh PP^P`OJQJo(h 88^8`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh   ^ `OJQJo(h   ^ `OJQJo(h xx^x`OJQJo(oh HH^H`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh ^`OJQJo(^`o(.h ^`OJQJo(pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.M^`Mo(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.^`o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.h 88^8`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh   ^ `OJQJo(h   ^ `OJQJo(h xx^x`OJQJo(oh HH^H`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh ^`OJQJo(^`o(.^`.pLp^p`L.@ @ ^@ `.^`.L^`L.^`.^`.PLP^P`L.h 88^8`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh   ^ `OJQJo(h   ^ `OJQJo(h xx^x`OJQJo(oh HH^H`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(h ^`OJQJo(oh ^`OJQJo( qbchR]kbB\ M,Aijx"apd>t,L"-]"Z}.l hA m?Xg@iA Fw#>x!N @ ^`OJQJo(vb<:|jȨ j:ߢvt~Cz@07MOVWX\egqstȁȎGGG6666666PPrPPPPPPPPPP@PPP@@P"P0Pl@P8PHPLP^P`P@PpUnknownG:Times New Roman5Symbol3& :Arial?5 :Courier New;Wingdings"qhF]\FxFZ=NI!n20j 2Q>OA=8B5;L=0O 70?8A:0@>4A:89 >@8AUser  Oh+'0   < H T`hpx 9 NormalUser 90rMicrosoft Word 9.0@@LVf@B5Zf= ՜.+,D՜.+,D hp|  INj    8@ _PID_HLINKSA`nthttp://www.eeg.ru/  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      "#$%&'(-Root Entry FtZf/Data 1TabletWordDocument.SummaryInformation(DocumentSummaryInformation8!CompObjjObjectPooltZftZf  F Microsoft Word MSWordDocWord.Document.89q